731
FXUS66 KMTR 011822
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1122 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1146 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH WEAK BOUTS OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW AT 500
HPA. THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST WEEK, WHICH HAS
ALLOWED THE MARINE LAYER TO BE LOCKED IN PLACE AND KEPT TEMPERATURES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ALONG THE COAST. AS HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S
ALONG COASTAL COMMUNITIES, WITH THOSE INLAND IN THE 70S TO MID
80S. MARINE LAYER WILL SLOWLY ERODE ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MONTEREY
BAY AREA. ALTHOUGH, COMMUNITIES LOCATED ALONG MONTEREY BAY SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN LOCKED UNDER THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT
ALL, OF THE DAY. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW THE SUN TO
BREAK THROUGH BRIEFLY AT TIMES. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK BOUTS OF ENERGY
CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1146 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
ON THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
UNDER THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN INLAND.
FRIDAY ONWARD, WE WILL START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK
DOWN OVER THE AREA. WE WILL ALSO START TO SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING
DEVELOP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS, WE WILL START TO SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FOR
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE COAST WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70, WITH MORE NOTABLE WARMING NOTED FOR INLAND AREAS. THIS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR INLAND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WILL BE SEEN. AS A RESULT, HEATRISK ALONG THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
WILL REMAIN LOW (GREEN), WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL BE MINOR
(YELLOW). AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE, GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH, CPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE AREA UNDER FAVORABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER TO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. ELSEWHERE,
EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. STRATUS, MAINLY
MVFR CEILINGS WITH LOCALIZED IFR, WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASED INLAND EXTENT COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY RETURNING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KT, DECREASING
OVERNIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OAK. AT SJC, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. TONIGHT,
WINDS DECREASING AND BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT OAK, AND
SOUTHEAST AT SJC.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT AT MRY, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT SNS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MVFR STRATUS RETURNS. BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS, SOUTHWEST AT MRY AND NORTHWEST AT SNS, DECREASING
THIS EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHILE
WEAKER, YET STILL GUSTY WINDS AFFECT THE REST OF THE WATERS. GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WILL EASE TONIGHT.
MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE OUTER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE ABATING TO BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM....GUNKEL
AVIATION...TANGEN
MARINE...TANGEN
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