035
FXUS66 KMTR 011932
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1232 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS.
- GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH PLEASANT
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1232 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
GOES-WEST VISIBLE IMAGERY OFFERS A SIMILAR SNAPSHOT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WITH MARINE STRATUS BLANKETING THE PACIFIC COAST. THE
ONE DIFFERENCE TO POINT OUT WOULD BE A THIN SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE GOLDEN STATE. ALL IN ALL, A
VERY PLEASANT DAY ON-TAP FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS TO SPEAK OF.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LAND IN THE 50S AND 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE PACIFIC COAST, WARMING TO THE 70S AND 80S FOR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.
THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE FEATURES A TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH
AXIS HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
WHICH HAS PROMOTED THE OVERALL TRANQUIL LATE JUNE, AND NOW, EARLY
JULY WEATHER. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC RETURNS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THAT SAID, TOMORROW WILL
BE LARGELY A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MARINE STRATUS FOR THE COAST
AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS INLAND.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1232 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE. THIS WILL
CORRESPOND TO SOME SYNOPTIC WARMING AT THE SURFACE, MAINLY FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS, THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERALL, THIS WARMING WILL
JUST RETURN INTERIOR COMMUNITIES CLOSER TO EARLY JULY
CLIMATOLOGY. IN FACT, HEATRISK FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL REMAIN
LOW (GREEN) ALONG THE COAST AND MINOR (YELLOW) INLAND WITH THE
USUAL COASTAL STRATUS.
ENSEMBLES ADVERTISE RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL DO NOT FORESEE MUCH IN TERMS OF
HEATRISK BEYOND THE MINOR (YELLOW) AND VERY ISOLATED MODERATE
(ORANGE) CATEGORIES FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS, THE
ONLY LOCAL AREAS WITH AT LEAST 20% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 90
DEG F THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ARE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN CONTRA
COSTA, SOUTHERN SAN BENITO, AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. ELSEWHERE,
EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. STRATUS, MAINLY
MVFR CEILINGS WITH LOCALIZED IFR, WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASED INLAND EXTENT COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY RETURNING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KT, DECREASING
OVERNIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OAK. AT SJC, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. TONIGHT,
WINDS DECREASING AND BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT OAK, AND
SOUTHEAST AT SJC.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT AT MRY, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT SNS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MVFR STRATUS RETURNS. BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS, SOUTHWEST AT MRY AND NORTHWEST AT SNS, DECREASING
THIS EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHILE
WEAKER, YET STILL GUSTY WINDS AFFECT THE REST OF THE WATERS. GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WILL EASE TONIGHT.
MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE OUTER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE ABATING TO BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...ROWE
LONG TERM....ROWE
AVIATION...TANGEN
MARINE...TANGEN
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