145
FXUS66 KMTR 012342
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
442 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS.
- GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH PLEASANT
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1232 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
GOES-WEST VISIBLE IMAGERY OFFERS A SIMILAR SNAPSHOT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WITH MARINE STRATUS BLANKETING THE PACIFIC COAST. THE
ONE DIFFERENCE TO POINT OUT WOULD BE A THIN SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE GOLDEN STATE. ALL IN ALL, A
VERY PLEASANT DAY ON-TAP FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS TO SPEAK OF.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LAND IN THE 50S AND 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE PACIFIC COAST, WARMING TO THE 70S AND 80S FOR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.
THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE FEATURES A TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH
AXIS HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
WHICH HAS PROMOTED THE OVERALL TRANQUIL LATE JUNE, AND NOW, EARLY
JULY WEATHER. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC RETURNS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THAT SAID, TOMORROW WILL
BE LARGELY A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MARINE STRATUS FOR THE COAST
AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS INLAND.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1232 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE. THIS WILL
CORRESPOND TO SOME SYNOPTIC WARMING AT THE SURFACE, MAINLY FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS, THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERALL, THIS WARMING WILL
JUST RETURN INTERIOR COMMUNITIES CLOSER TO EARLY JULY
CLIMATOLOGY. IN FACT, HEATRISK FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL REMAIN
LOW (GREEN) ALONG THE COAST AND MINOR (YELLOW) INLAND WITH THE
USUAL COASTAL STRATUS.
ENSEMBLES ADVERTISE RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL DO NOT FORESEE MUCH IN TERMS OF
HEATRISK BEYOND THE MINOR (YELLOW) AND VERY ISOLATED MODERATE
(ORANGE) CATEGORIES FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS, THE
ONLY LOCAL AREAS WITH AT LEAST 20% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 90
DEG F THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ARE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN CONTRA
COSTA, SOUTHERN SAN BENITO, AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTIES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 445 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS HAVE RETURNED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE AND
WILL QUICKLY EXPAND AROUND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ELSEWHERE,
EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE
THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. STRATUS, MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS WITH LOCALIZED IFR, WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASED INLAND EXTENT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY RETURNING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT AGAIN THURSDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OAK. AT SJC, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. TONIGHT, WINDS DECREASING AND
BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT OAK, AND SOUTHEAST AT SJC. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHWEST AT SJC AGAIN BY
21 OR 22Z.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AT BOTH SNS AND MRY. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS,
SOUTHWEST AT MRY AND NORTHWEST AT SNS, DECREASING THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHILE
WEAKER, YET STILL GUSTY WINDS AFFECT THE REST OF THE WATERS. GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WILL EASE TONIGHT.
MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE OUTER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE ABATING TO BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...ROWE
LONG TERM....ROWE
AVIATION...MK
MARINE...TANGEN
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