477
FXUS66 KMTR 020713
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1213 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1158 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
- SEASONALLY COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH MARINE LAYER LIKELY TO STAY IN PLACE FOR MANY
COASTAL COMMUNITIES SOUTH OF PACIFICA.
- PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH SOME
AREAS SEEING A WARMING TREND FRIDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1158 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
THURSDAY IS GEARED TO BE ANOTHER DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS BEEN
IN PLACE FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW, WHICH HAS LARGELY KEPT THE MARINE
LAYER OVER COASTAL AREAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND. THUS, WE CAN
EXPECT A REPEAT OF THIS WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST REMAINING IN THE 60S AND INLAND
LOCATIONS INCREASING INTO THE 70S AND 80S. AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER
THE MONTEREY BAY AREA ON WEDNESDAY, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ZONAL FLOW STARTS
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND WE START TO SEE GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE ON
THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT, WITH THE MARINE LAYER BECOMING WIDESPREAD
AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. FRIDAY ONWARD, THE PERSISTENT
LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT DOMINATED THE AREA WILL BREAK DOWN. ZONAL
FLOW WILL TAKE OVER, WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
INCREASING 500 HPA HEIGHTS WILL RESULT, WHERE WE WILL START TO SEE
A GRADUAL WARMING, ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE A 2-4 DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1158 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
GUIDANCE FAVORS A WEAKER MARINE LAYER SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
AND HEIGHT INCREASES, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME. TEMPERATURES FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE COAST WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70, WITH THE
MORE NOTABLE WARMING NOTED FOR INLAND AREAS WHERE IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR INLAND AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE MONTEREY BAY AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES, LARGELY FOR AREAS IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. HEATRISK ALONG THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
WILL REMAIN LOW (GREEN), WITH INLAND AREAS AT MINOR (YELLOW). CPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA UNDER FAVORABILITY FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE SUMMER-LIKE
WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND IS WHEN WE
ARE STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE (ORANGE) HEATRISK,
LARGELY IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTEREY COUNTY. ALTHOUGH,
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOWER AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 923 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE SOLIDLY IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING. LOCALLY BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT SOME OF CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR, BUT THIS IS STARTING TO LOOK LESS LIKELY
WITH THEM STARTING AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET. THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR AGAIN IN MOST AREAS, BUT THIS MAY BE BRIEF AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. STRATUS, MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH LOCALIZED
IFR, WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE OF A
BRIEF RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OAK. SO FAR NOT MUCH HAS DEVELOPED AS OF
05Z SO CONFIDENCE IS GETTING LOWER ON THIS. AT SJC, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SOME
STRATUS IS MOVING NORTH NEAR MORGAN HILL. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED
TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER, BUT THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TOWARDS MORNING. TONIGHT, WINDS DECREASING AND
BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT OAK, AND SOUTHEAST AT SJC. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHWEST AGAIN AT SJC
AGAIN BY 21 OR 22Z.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR STRATUS RETURNING QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AT BOTH SNS AND MRY. BREEZY WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
IN THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TIMING AND IT WILL LIKELY BE A SIMILAR DURATION TO TODAY.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 923 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WILL EASE
TONIGHT. MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE ABATING TO BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTH.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM....GUNKEL
AVIATION...MKK
MARINE...MKK
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