811
FXUS66 KMTR 021049
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
349 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1158 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
- SEASONALLY COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH MARINE LAYER LIKELY TO STAY IN PLACE FOR MANY
COASTAL COMMUNITIES SOUTH OF PACIFICA.
- PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH SOME
AREAS SEEING A WARMING TREND FRIDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1158 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
THURSDAY IS GEARED TO BE ANOTHER DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS BEEN
IN PLACE FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW, WHICH HAS LARGELY KEPT THE MARINE
LAYER OVER COASTAL AREAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND. THUS, WE CAN
EXPECT A REPEAT OF THIS WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST REMAINING IN THE 60S AND INLAND
LOCATIONS INCREASING INTO THE 70S AND 80S. AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER
THE MONTEREY BAY AREA ON WEDNESDAY, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ZONAL FLOW STARTS
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND WE START TO SEE GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE ON
THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT, WITH THE MARINE LAYER BECOMING WIDESPREAD
AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. FRIDAY ONWARD, THE PERSISTENT
LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT DOMINATED THE AREA WILL BREAK DOWN. ZONAL
FLOW WILL TAKE OVER, WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
INCREASING 500 HPA HEIGHTS WILL RESULT, WHERE WE WILL START TO SEE
A GRADUAL WARMING, ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE A 2-4 DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1158 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
GUIDANCE FAVORS A WEAKER MARINE LAYER SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
AND HEIGHT INCREASES, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME. TEMPERATURES FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE COAST WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70, WITH THE
MORE NOTABLE WARMING NOTED FOR INLAND AREAS WHERE IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR INLAND AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE MONTEREY BAY AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES, LARGELY FOR AREAS IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. HEATRISK ALONG THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
WILL REMAIN LOW (GREEN), WITH INLAND AREAS AT MINOR (YELLOW). CPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA UNDER FAVORABILITY FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE SUMMER-LIKE
WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND IS WHEN WE
ARE STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE (ORANGE) HEATRISK,
LARGELY IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTEREY COUNTY. ALTHOUGH,
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOWER AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 349 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ IS DEVELOPING WITH ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING.
STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
VFR PREVAILS TODAY. COASTAL STRATUS REDEVELOPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...SAN JOSE AIRPORT VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND 12
TO 19 KNOTS UNTIL 18Z TODAY, DIMINISHING TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND
THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON, SHIFTING
TO SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. OAKLAND
AIRPORT STRATUS /MVFR/ MIXING OUT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WIND 5 TO 12 KNOTS.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS /MVFR/ MIXES OUT TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING AND/OR AFTERNOON. STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ REDEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. KMRY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND
BECOMING WEST AND INCREASING 14 TO 21 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON THEN
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. KSNS NORTHWEST TO WEST
WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTH. SEAS WILL ABATE TO
BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM....GUNKEL
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page