466
FXUS66 KMTR 021752
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1052 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1158 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
- SEASONALLY COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH MARINE LAYER LIKELY TO STAY IN PLACE FOR MANY
COASTAL COMMUNITIES SOUTH OF PACIFICA.
- PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH SOME
AREAS SEEING A WARMING TREND FRIDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1158 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
THURSDAY IS GEARED TO BE ANOTHER DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS BEEN
IN PLACE FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW, WHICH HAS LARGELY KEPT THE MARINE
LAYER OVER COASTAL AREAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND. THUS, WE CAN
EXPECT A REPEAT OF THIS WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST REMAINING IN THE 60S AND INLAND
LOCATIONS INCREASING INTO THE 70S AND 80S. AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER
THE MONTEREY BAY AREA ON WEDNESDAY, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ZONAL FLOW STARTS
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND WE START TO SEE GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE ON
THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT, WITH THE MARINE LAYER BECOMING WIDESPREAD
AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. FRIDAY ONWARD, THE PERSISTENT
LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT DOMINATED THE AREA WILL BREAK DOWN. ZONAL
FLOW WILL TAKE OVER, WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
INCREASING 500 HPA HEIGHTS WILL RESULT, WHERE WE WILL START TO SEE
A GRADUAL WARMING, ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE A 2-4 DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1158 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
GUIDANCE FAVORS A WEAKER MARINE LAYER SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
AND HEIGHT INCREASES, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME. TEMPERATURES FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE COAST WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70, WITH THE
MORE NOTABLE WARMING NOTED FOR INLAND AREAS WHERE IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR INLAND AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE MONTEREY BAY AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES, LARGELY FOR AREAS IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. HEATRISK ALONG THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
WILL REMAIN LOW (GREEN), WITH INLAND AREAS AT MINOR (YELLOW). CPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA UNDER FAVORABILITY FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE SUMMER-LIKE
WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND IS WHEN WE
ARE STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE (ORANGE) HEATRISK,
LARGELY IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTEREY COUNTY. ALTHOUGH,
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOWER AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
STRATUS CONTINUES TO MIX-OUT THROUGH THE MORNING, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS AT MAJORITY OF TERMINALS. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THE DAY.
ONSHORE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING BREEZY AT THE USUAL WIND-PRONE TERMINALS. STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO SOME
TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN TRANSITION TO WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. 18Z TAF LEANS ON PERSISTENCE FOR OVERNIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OAK. FOR SJC, DRAINAGE SOUTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH AROUND 21Z, THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST. REDEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT OAK LIKELY AFTER ~11Z FRIDAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...BOTH MRY AND SNS HAVE GONE FROM OVC/BKN
TO SCT/FEW IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AROUND 01-02Z
FRIDAY. GUST ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTH. SEAS WILL ABATE TO BECOME
MODERATE TO ROUGH TODAY AND FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM....GUNKEL
AVIATION...ROWE
MARINE...ROWE
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