971
FXUS66 KMTR 022017
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
117 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 110 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A MARINE LAYER
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL, HEATRISK IN THE MINOR
CATEGORY, AND CLOUDS EACH NIGHT/MORNING RETREATING TO THE
COAST EACH DAY.
- A SLIGHT COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH OTHERWISE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE HEATRISK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1257 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE
STRATUS WILL PERSIST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN INTACT TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW
STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL START TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND
TO CLIMB 3 TO 6 DEGREES FROM TODAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND
TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. ALONG THE COAST, THE MARINE LAYER AND A
LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY CONSTANT FROM
TODAY. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S, 60S TO
70S ALONG THE SF BAY SHORELINE AND COASTAL VALLEYS, AND 80S TO
AROUND 90 IN THE INTERIOR. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MINOR
HEATRISK IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHERE THEY WILL LINGER. ONSHORE WINDS WILL GUST 15 TO
25 MPH, LOCALLY UP TO 30 MPH IN GAPS/PASSES. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN
FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1257 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING FROM FRIDAY. OVERALL, CONDITIONS
WILL BE TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE, BRINGING CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH CLEARING
BACK TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AN ONSHORE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, GUSTING TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH. STRATUS WILL BEGIN ITS
INLAND ADVANCE IN THE EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL REVERSE THE WARMING TREND AND BRING A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING, PLACING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. OTHERWISE,
THE DAY-TO-DAY TREND WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL PROVIDE LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING,
CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST EACH DAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. BY MIDWEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TROUGH
WEAKENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM. THE DEGREE OF WARMING IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT FAVORS A FEW DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY IN
INTERIOR AREAS. HEATRISK IS CURRENTLY FAVORED TO REMAIN MINOR, BUT
BY THURSDAY FEATURES A 10-30% CHANCE OF MODERATE IN INLAND AREAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
STRATUS CONTINUES TO MIX-OUT THROUGH THE MORNING, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS AT MAJORITY OF TERMINALS. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THE DAY.
ONSHORE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING BREEZY AT THE USUAL WIND-PRONE TERMINALS. STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO SOME
TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN TRANSITION TO WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. 18Z TAF LEANS ON PERSISTENCE FOR OVERNIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OAK. FOR SJC, DRAINAGE SOUTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH AROUND 21Z, THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST. REDEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT OAK LIKELY AFTER ~11Z FRIDAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...BOTH MRY AND SNS HAVE GONE FROM OVC/BKN
TO SCT/FEW IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AROUND 01-02Z
FRIDAY. GUST ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTH. SEAS WILL ABATE TO BECOME
MODERATE TO ROUGH TODAY AND FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...TANGEN
LONG TERM....TANGEN
AVIATION...ROWE
MARINE...ROWE
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