354
FXUS66 KMTR 030445
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
945 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 110 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A MARINE LAYER
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL, HEATRISK IN THE MINOR
CATEGORY, AND CLOUDS EACH NIGHT/MORNING RETREATING TO THE
COAST EACH DAY.
- A SLIGHT COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH OTHERWISE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE HEATRISK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1257 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE
STRATUS WILL PERSIST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN INTACT TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW
STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL START TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND
TO CLIMB 3 TO 6 DEGREES FROM TODAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND
TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. ALONG THE COAST, THE MARINE LAYER AND A
LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY CONSTANT FROM
TODAY. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S, 60S TO
70S ALONG THE SF BAY SHORELINE AND COASTAL VALLEYS, AND 80S TO
AROUND 90 IN THE INTERIOR. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MINOR
HEATRISK IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHERE THEY WILL LINGER. ONSHORE WINDS WILL GUST 15 TO
25 MPH, LOCALLY UP TO 30 MPH IN GAPS/PASSES. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN
FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1257 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING FROM FRIDAY. OVERALL, CONDITIONS
WILL BE TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE, BRINGING CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH CLEARING
BACK TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AN ONSHORE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, GUSTING TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH. STRATUS WILL BEGIN ITS
INLAND ADVANCE IN THE EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL REVERSE THE WARMING TREND AND BRING A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING, PLACING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. OTHERWISE,
THE DAY-TO-DAY TREND WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL PROVIDE LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING,
CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST EACH DAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. BY MIDWEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TROUGH
WEAKENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM. THE DEGREE OF WARMING IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT FAVORS A FEW DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY IN
INTERIOR AREAS. HEATRISK IS CURRENTLY FAVORED TO REMAIN MINOR, BUT
BY THURSDAY FEATURES A 10-30% CHANCE OF MODERATE IN INLAND AREAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 945 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE STRATUS IS FILLING IN AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND IS
GENERALLY COMING IN A FEW HUNDRED FEET LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. THIS MAY BRING SOME MORE IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TO THE COAST AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON MUCH
LIKE TODAY. ONSHORE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING BREEZY AT THE USUAL WIND-PRONE
TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL THEY LOOK SLIGHTLY LIGHTER THAN
TODAY. STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE RETURN OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO SOME TERMINALS. CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE TO
LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
VICINITY OF SFO...TONIGHT GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE
PERSISTENT AND SKIES TO REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CLOUDS BELOW 2000 FEET BRIEFLY TOWARDS MORNING. VFR
ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT THE PROBABILITY OF CIGS RETURNING AT SFO
INCREASE TO AROUND 50 PERCENT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...STRATUS HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
HILLS EAST OF KOAK AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD DOWN INTO THE
TERMINAL AGAIN TONIGHT. THESE MAY DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY TOWARDS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE MORNING
ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. FOR SJC, DRAINAGE
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH AROUND 21Z, THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST.
REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AT OAK IS LIKELY AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE RETURNED AND THESE MAY
DROP FOR A PERIOD OF TIME TO IFR TOWARDS MORNING. GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR
LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY AGAIN. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
QUICKLY AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING AND COULD COME IN IFR OR CLOSE TO IT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 917 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO GUSTY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WHILE WINDS EASE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL ABATE TO BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH
TODAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO BUILD AGAIN INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...TANGEN
LONG TERM....TANGEN
AVIATION...KIDWELL
MARINE...MURDOCK
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