707
FXUS66 KMTR 031214
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
514 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1205 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EACH DAY, RETREATING TO THE
COAST FOR MANY EACH AFTERNOON. UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL ALONG THE COAST WITH
A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
- A BRIEF COOLDOWN WILL BE SEEN AT THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK, WITH A WARMUP EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE LOW-END CHANCES FOR SOME INLAND LOCATIONS TO SEE
MODERATE (ORANGE) HEATRISK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1205 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
(TODAY AND SATURDAY)
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BREAKS DOWN EARLY ON FRIDAY, WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, WE WILL START TO SEE HEIGHT RISE OVER THE AREA, WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST
COASTAL LOCATIONS, WITH SOME BREAKS ALLOWING FOR THE SUN TO PEAK
THROUGH. ALTHOUGH, WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS IN THE 60S. INLAND
AREAS WILL SEE SOME WARMING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS SEEING A 3-5 DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
OVERALL, A PLEASANT DAY IS AHEAD OF US WITH MINOR (YELLOW)
HEATRISK FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND LOW (GREEN) ALONG THE COAST.
SATURDAY, WE WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS,
GENERALLY SEEING A 1-3 DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO FRIDAY. THIS
WOULD BRING INLAND LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE MID 80S, WITH SOME
REACHING THE UPPER 80S. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. ONE OF THE MORE NOTABLE CHANGES IS THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY, THE FORECAST WILL TREND
TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1205 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WE WILL SEE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. AS WAS SEEN LAST WEEK, THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER EACH NIGHT/MORNING, WHICH
MAY REMAIN OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND, A POTENT WAVE WILL START TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHILE A RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST OR
JUST OFF THE COAST OVER THE PACIFIC. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
AMONGST GLOBAL GUIDANCE ON WHERE THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL SET UP,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME SUBTLE FORECAST DIFFERENCES AS WE GET
CLOSER. IN EITHER CASE THROUGH, WE WILL SEE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE
REGION WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. IN TIME, FLOW OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL GENERALLY BE ZONAL AT 500 HPA. WITH THIS PATTERN
IN MIND, IT WOULD SEEM LIKE ARE ARE GOING TO ENTER ANOTHER WARMING
REGIME MIDWEEK AND BEYOND , ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. CPC
SUPPORTS THIS, INDICATING FAVORABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. OVERALL, WE ARE LOOKING AT MID-UPPER
80S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS, WITH SOME IN THE LOW 90S NOT OUT OF
QUESTION. WHILE NOT A LARGE SIGNAL AT THIS TIME, THERE WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED INLAND LOCATIONS TO SEE MODERATE (ORANGE)
HEATRISK CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS STRETCH. OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL RANGE FROM LOW (GREEN) TO MINOR (YELLOW) HEATRISK. THIS
WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH ONSHORE WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
CLASSIC "NO SKY JULY" AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOLID MARINE OVER COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND VALLEYS WITH
DEPTH AROUND 1500 FEET WITH A MANY CIGS BELOW 1000 FT. BETTER
COVERAGE OF STRATUS IN SF BAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE
12Z TAFS TOOK A COMBO OF PERSISTENCE AND HREF/HRRR BLEND. VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, MINUS KHAF. CIGS RETURN AGAIN EARLY
TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR. CONF IS MODERATE TO HIGH
VICINITY OF SFO...SOLID CIGS AROUND 1400 FT. WILL KEEP CIGS IN
PLAY THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. 30% CHC OF CIGS LASTING THROUGH 18Z.
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH NW WINDS SUSTAINED MID TEENS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z . CIGS LURK IN
THE BAY ALL DAY BEFORE RETURNING EARLY THIS EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO STRONG BREEZES. WINDS AND
SEAS LOOK TO BUILD THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM....GUNKEL
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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