662
FXUS66 KMTR 031920
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1220 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EACH DAY, RETREATING TO THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON.
- MINOR WARMING THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- BRIEF COOLDOWN EARLY WEEK, FOLLOWED BY RENEWED WARMING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1220 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
AN EXCEPTIONALLY ORDINARY JULY DAY IS ON TAP WEATHER-WISE FOR THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. WE WOKE UP
THIS MORNING WITH THE USUAL MARINE STRATUS BLANKETING MAJORITY OF
THE AREA, INCLUDING INLAND NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY VALLEYS, AND
HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AN EXPEDITIOUS MIX-OUT.
FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT AS CLOSE TO NORMAL AS THEY CAN BE FOR
EARLY JULY: 50S AND 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PACIFIC COAST, 70S TO
AROUND 80 ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE, AND 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. ALL IN ALL, A GREAT WEATHER DAY FOR
THE REGION.
THIS WEEK'S PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA HAS
STARTED TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. LOCALLY, THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY, AND PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL FEW
DEGREES OF WARMING FOR INTERIOR COMMUNITIES ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HEATRISK FOR THE HOLIDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE LITTLE/NO (GREEN)
CATEGORY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PACIFIC COAST AND MINOR (YELLOW) FOR
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS. IF YOU
HAVE TRAVEL PLANS ELSEWHERE IN CALIFORNIA FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
HEATRISK THROUGHOUT THE GOLDEN STATE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE MINOR
(YELLOW), WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS FOR THE HOTTEST DESERTS WITH
MODERATE (ORANGE) HEATRISK.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1220 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FURTHER STRENGTHENS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
WE SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED ENOUGH TO SEE ANY IMPACTFUL INFLUENCE
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE LARGELY A REPEAT WITH MINIMAL
DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES FORECAST. BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK,
ENSEMBLES MIGRATE AND STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TOWARDS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL RESULT IN RENEWED WARMING FOR MUCH
OF CALIFORNIA -- MINUS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS THAT WILL BENEFIT
FROM THE MARINE STRATUS. CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 6-10 AND 8-14
DAY OUTLOOKS BOTH FAVOR INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AS WE DIVE
DEEPER INTO JULY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
CLASSIC "NO SKY JULY" AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOLID MARINE OVER COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND VALLEYS WITH
DEPTH AROUND 1500 FEET WITH A MANY CIGS BELOW 1000 FT. CIGS ARE
BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT OF MOST TAF SITES, WITH A CHANCE OF SOME
SCATTERING AT KHAF THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN AGAIN EARLY
TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND CIG HEIGHTS. SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN EXPECTED AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH NW WINDS SUSTAINED MID
TEENS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS TONIGHT AFTER
07Z, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE IFR WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE. SIMILAR
CLEARING TIME LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CIGS SCATTERING THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CIGS LURK IN THE BAY
ALL DAY BEFORE RETURNING AROUND 02Z SAT; HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MVFR
CIGS, LOCALLY IFR OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO STRONG BREEZES. MORE WIDESPREAD
STRONGER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD STARTING LATER ON MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...ROWE
LONG TERM....ROWE
AVIATION...APR
MARINE...APR
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