354
FXUS66 KMTR 040359
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
859 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EACH DAY, RETREATING TO THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON.
- MINOR WARMING THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- BRIEF COOLDOWN EARLY WEEK, FOLLOWED BY RENEWED WARMING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 854 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INLAND WITH THE CLOUDS COMING INTO
THE PETALUMA GAP, THE GOLDEN GATE INTO BERKELEY, AND THE MONTEREY
BAY REGION, WITH FURTHER EXPANSION EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WITH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY TOMORROW, PEOPLE PLANNING TO
CELEBRATE WITH FIREWORKS OR OUTDOOR COOKOUTS SHOULD REMEMBER THEIR
FIRE SAFETY, OBEY ANY LOCAL BURN BANS, AND KEEP A FIRE
EXTINGUISHER NEARBY WHEN PLAYING WITH FIREWORKS OR COOKING WITH
OPEN FLAMES.
DIALH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1220 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
AN EXCEPTIONALLY ORDINARY JULY DAY IS ON TAP WEATHER-WISE FOR THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. WE WOKE UP
THIS MORNING WITH THE USUAL MARINE STRATUS BLANKETING MAJORITY OF
THE AREA, INCLUDING INLAND NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY VALLEYS, AND
HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AN EXPEDITIOUS MIX-OUT.
FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT AS CLOSE TO NORMAL AS THEY CAN BE FOR
EARLY JULY: 50S AND 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PACIFIC COAST, 70S TO
AROUND 80 ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE, AND 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. ALL IN ALL, A GREAT WEATHER DAY FOR
THE REGION.
THIS WEEK'S PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA HAS
STARTED TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. LOCALLY, THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY, AND PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL FEW
DEGREES OF WARMING FOR INTERIOR COMMUNITIES ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HEATRISK FOR THE HOLIDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE LITTLE/NO (GREEN)
CATEGORY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PACIFIC COAST AND MINOR (YELLOW) FOR
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS. IF YOU
HAVE TRAVEL PLANS ELSEWHERE IN CALIFORNIA FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
HEATRISK THROUGHOUT THE GOLDEN STATE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE MINOR
(YELLOW), WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS FOR THE HOTTEST DESERTS WITH
MODERATE (ORANGE) HEATRISK.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1220 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FURTHER STRENGTHENS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
WE SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED ENOUGH TO SEE ANY IMPACTFUL INFLUENCE
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE LARGELY A REPEAT WITH MINIMAL
DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES FORECAST. BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK,
ENSEMBLES MIGRATE AND STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TOWARDS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL RESULT IN RENEWED WARMING FOR MUCH
OF CALIFORNIA -- MINUS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS THAT WILL BENEFIT
FROM THE MARINE STRATUS. CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 6-10 AND 8-14
DAY OUTLOOKS BOTH FAVOR INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AS WE DIVE
DEEPER INTO JULY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 459 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER.
CIGS AT KHAF HAVE COME IN THIS AFTERNOON AT 700 FEET. SO GENERALLY
EXPECT CIGS WILL BE LOWER AROUND THE AREA THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
MANY AREAS SEEING IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR COVERAGE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS TONIGHT AFTER
07Z, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE IFR ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS.
SIMILAR CLEARING TIME LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE JUST OUT OF MTR
AND SNS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
AND THESE MAY BE IFR OR QUICKLY DROP TO IFR. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR AGAIN BY MID MORNING OR SO ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 854 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES. SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED. MORE WIDESPREAD
STRONGER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...ROWE
LONG TERM....ROWE
AVIATION...MKK
MARINE...MKK
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