674
FXUS66 KMTR 050701
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1201 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND
ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
- MARINE LAYER STRATUS DEVELOPS EACH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
RETREATING TO THE COAST EACH MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
STRATUS IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE COASTAL REGIONS AND INTO THE
VALLEYS, BUT HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE
MAKING IT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TRACK THE STRATUS. RADAR ECHOES ARE
COMING IN ABOVE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY
COUNTY. HOWEVER, THERE HAVEN'T BEEN A LOT OF REPORTS OF RAIN AT THE
SURFACE , ALTHOUGH PASO ROBLES AIRPORT DID REPORT LIGHT RAIN
STARTING AROUND 1015 PM. THE 00Z (5 PM) SOUNDING FROM VANDENBERG
SFB, IN ADDITION TO AIRCRAFT-DERIVED SOUNDINGS AT OAK AND SFO,
REVEAL THE MAIN THING KEEPING THE SURFACE GENERALLY DRY IS A LAYER
OF VERY DRY AIR STARTING JUST ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION AT
1500-2000 FEET UP TO AROUND 6000-7000 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL. WITHIN
THE LAYER, DEW POINTS AS LOW AS -10 DEGREES CELSIUS, OR 14 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, WERE OBSERVED, WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S WERE REPORTED, CORRESPONDING TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AROUND 12 TO 13%. BASED ON THE OBSERVED CONDITIONS, SOME SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND BAY AREA CAN'T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON, AND I HAVE OPTED
TO PUT A WIDE AREA OF SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES (10-15% PROBABILITY)
THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA, ALTHOUGH NOTE THAT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY ISOLATED. AS FOR CONVECTIVE
CHANCES, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY SMALL, NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE, AS
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL TAMP DOWN
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TODAY SHOULD SEE A COOLDOWN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, UP TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE WARMEST INTERIOR SPOTS, THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S NEAR
THE BAYS, AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
STRATUS COVERAGE SHOULD RETREAT TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A CLEARING OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS AS THE PULSE
OF MOISTURE MOVES ON. BREEZY ONSHORE PATTERN WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH
GAPS, PASSES, AND THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW A BALANCE BETWEEN RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A SERIES OF TROUGHS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MONDAY WILL NOT HAVE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY RISE INLAND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH A PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN LOCAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS UP TO 105 WITHIN THE
WARMEST SPOTS OF SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY. BEYOND THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK,
ENSEMBLE MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS PARING BACK TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
(JULY 11 TO 12), WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A RETURN TO CONDITIONS SIMILAR
TO THOSE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE CPC OUTLOOKS
LEAN TOWARDS TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
THROUGH THE MONTH OF JULY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 936 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2026
STRATUS IS MOVING BACK IN THIS EVENING AND HAS ALREADY MADE IT TO
SOME OF THE TERMINALS. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
OVERNIGHT BRINGING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME LOCAL AREAS OF
LIFR. GENERALLY CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR IN HEIGHT TO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY THE CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR AS WELL WITH MOST SITES CLEARING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR WITH ONLY A FEW SHORT
BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO...SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
LIKELY INTO SUNDAY. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 08Z
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
MONITOR. CLEARING MAY BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON SATURDAY, BUT
STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 17 OR 18Z. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE MVFR CIGS (LOCALLY IFR) ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
FROM AROUND 07-18Z ONCE AGAIN WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIG
TIMING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CIGS RETURN NEAR OR AFTER 02Z SUN, CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY MID TO LATE IN THE MORNING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR 15 KTS AT TIMES. SUNDAY EVENING A QUICK
RETURN OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED LIKE WE HAVE BEEN SEEING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY TONIGHT WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME GUSTS NEAR
GALE OR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...MKK
MARINE...MKK
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