523
FXUS66 KMTR 051920
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1220 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND
ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
- MARINE LAYER STRATUS DEVELOPS EACH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEFORE RETREATING TO THE COAST EACH MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1218 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
COASTAL STRATUS CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO EXITING TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE, MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S
NEAR THE BAYS, MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 80S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, AND
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 90S IN THE WARMEST INTERIOR SPOTS. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
AS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH GAPS, PASSES, AND THE SALINAS VALLEY.
ONCE AGAIN, STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND RETURN INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN COOLER CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SIMILAR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS TODAY. A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SIMILAR STRATUS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1218 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER, PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST MARINE LAYER
AND KEEP CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.
OVERALL, HEATRISK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF MODERATE IN THE WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
LINGERING MVFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY SCATTERING OUT OF THE REMAINING
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS (AROUND 12-16KT) ACROSS OUR REGION. NORTH BAY
TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. TERMINALS SOUTH
OF THE GOLDEN GATE WILL EXPERIENCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR CLEARING AT KHAF FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. ANY
SCATTERING THAT DEVELOPS AT KHAF MAY BE SHORT-LIVED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. THE MARINE
LAYER RETURNS THIS EVENING WITH A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. ANTICIPATE BORDERLINE MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AFTER 02-03Z MONDAY.
CEILINGS IN THE INTERIOR EAST AND SOUTH BAY VALLEYS DEVELOP AFTER
09Z MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KSTS WILL DROP DOWN TO LIFR
CONDITIONS. LIFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO PROBABLE FOR KHAF, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR BEGINNING 17Z MONDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZES AROUND 16 KT PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TO A GENTLE WESTERLY BREEZE
(~8KT) OVERNIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF STRATUS TONIGHT AS
IT MAY DEVELOP AN HOUR OR TWO LATER.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS AFTER SFO AROUND 10-11Z MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH 16-17Z.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-12KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THE STRATUS DECK ROLLS IN AT 02Z
MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
BOTH SNS AND MRY AGAIN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH 17Z MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GENTLE (~5 KT) OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 904 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO DECREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME GUSTS NEAR GALE OR GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...RGASS
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