926
FXUS66 KMTR 052357
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
457 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND
ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
- MARINE LAYER STRATUS DEVELOPS EACH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEFORE RETREATING TO THE COAST EACH MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1218 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
COASTAL STRATUS CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO EXITING TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE, MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S
NEAR THE BAYS, MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 80S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, AND
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 90S IN THE WARMEST INTERIOR SPOTS. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
AS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH GAPS, PASSES, AND THE SALINAS VALLEY.
ONCE AGAIN, STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND RETURN INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN COOLER CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SIMILAR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS TODAY. A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SIMILAR STRATUS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1218 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER, PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST MARINE LAYER
AND KEEP CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.
OVERALL, HEATRISK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF MODERATE IN THE WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 451 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABOUT 1,500 FEET DEEP AND STRATUS WILL BEGIN
PUSHING INLAND OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS. WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN AS
YESTERDAY, THE TAFS RELIED HEAVILY ON THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST
FOR CEILING ARRIVAL AND CLEARING TIMES.
VICINITY OF SFO...THE PENINSULA MOUNTAINS ARE DOING THERE JOB TO
KEEP THE TERMINAL CLEAR FOR NOW. STRATUS WILL LIKELY FILL IN
THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE, IMPACTING THE EAST BAY THIS EVENING
BEFORE WRAPPING AROUND TO REACH SFO LATER TONIGHT. THE EXACT
TIMING IS TRICKY, BUT EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE APPROACH 1-2 HOURS BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINAL TONIGHT.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MRY ALREADY HAS MVFR CEILINGS AND WILL
KEEP THEM THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEY ARE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR AT SNS
TOO.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZES PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH EASTWARD. WINDS INCREASE TO A FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, MODERATE SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWED BY THE INNER COASTAL
WATERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT
PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...RGASS
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