309
FXUS66 KMTR 060445
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
945 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND
ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
- MARINE LAYER STRATUS DEVELOPS EACH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEFORE RETREATING TO THE COAST EACH MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1218 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
COASTAL STRATUS CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO EXITING TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE, MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S
NEAR THE BAYS, MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 80S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, AND
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 90S IN THE WARMEST INTERIOR SPOTS. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
AS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH GAPS, PASSES, AND THE SALINAS VALLEY.
ONCE AGAIN, STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND RETURN INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN COOLER CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SIMILAR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS TODAY. A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SIMILAR STRATUS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1218 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER, PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST MARINE LAYER
AND KEEP CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.
OVERALL, HEATRISK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF MODERATE IN THE WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 931 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE EVENING STRATUS INTRUSION IS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
LAST NIGHT, INDICATING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. ALL TERMINALS ARE
NOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A CEILING AT SOME POINT TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...LOW CLOUDS ARE CLOSING IN FROM THE WEST, NORTH
AND EAST. THE TERMINAL IS ALREADY REPORTING BKN013, WHICH WILL
FILL IN AND LIKELY LOWER THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. STRONG WINDS WILL EASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE APPROACH IS HOLDING ON THE CLEAR SKIES
FOR NOW, BUT THE WALLS ARE CLOSING IN AND IT WON'T LAST MUCH
LONGER.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SNS WILL LIKELY CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING, BUT IT NOW LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT MRY WILL HOLD ON TO THE CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MODERATE NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY. NW WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A PROLONGED STRONG NW
BREEZE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE WINDS WILL
BUILD ROUGH WIND WAVES MIXED WITH A LOW SW SWELL.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 931 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR PACIFIC COAST BEACHES
FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CREATE AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER
WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS, AS WELL AS BREAKING WAVES UP TO 10
FEET. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES WITH MODERATE TO STEEP SLOPES ALONG THE NORTH BAY, SAN
FRANCISCO PENINSULA, AND SANTA CRUZ COASTS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN
SWEEP ACROSS THE SHORELINE WITHOUT WARNING, PULLING PEOPLE INTO
THE SEA FROM ROCKS, JETTIES AND BEACHES. DANGEROUS SWIMMING AND
SURFING CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED.
STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF
AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER, SURF
AND TIDE FORECASTS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MTR.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT
PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...FLYNN
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