461
FXUS66 KMTR 060704
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1204 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
- SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A WARMING
TREND ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
- MARINE LAYER STRATUS DEVELOPS EACH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
RETREATING TO THE COAST EACH MORNING AND AFTERNOON
- LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL CAUSES AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER
WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1203 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS HAVE COME IN PRETTY FAR INLAND, COMING INTO
THE SONOMA COUNTY VALLEYS, ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA AND INTO THE HILLS
SURROUNDING LIVERMORE, AND DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY. EXPECT EXTENSIVE
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, AS THE MARINE
LAYER SITS AROUND 2000 FEET DEEP, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL INLAND
CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN SOCKED IN.
ZOOM OUT TO THE LARGER SCALE AND YOU'LL FIND TROUGHING TO THE WEST
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, RIDGING TO THE EAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, AND WE'RE STUCK IN THE MIDDLE WITH THEM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE AND
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE INLAND VALLEYS, UP TO THE MIDDLE 90S IN THE WARMEST INTERIOR
SPOTS PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY, THE MIDDLE 60S TO
THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE BAYS, AND THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON REACH 20 TO 25
MPH THROUGH FAVORED GAPS, PASSES, AND THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1203 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE BROADLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY, WITH A
STRONGER AFTERNOON BREEZE POSSIBLE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY
RETROGRADES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE INLAND
AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH A
PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN LOCAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS,
TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS UP TO 105 WITHIN THE WARMEST SPOTS OF SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY. AFTERWARDS, ENSEMBLE MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE RIDGE AXIS PARING BACK TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME SUBTLE
COOLING, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
AS A FINAL NOTE, LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY; SEE THE BEACHES
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 931 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE EVENING STRATUS INTRUSION IS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
LAST NIGHT, INDICATING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. ALL TERMINALS ARE
NOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A CEILING AT SOME POINT TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...LOW CLOUDS ARE CLOSING IN FROM THE WEST, NORTH
AND EAST. THE TERMINAL IS ALREADY REPORTING BKN013, WHICH WILL
FILL IN AND LIKELY LOWER THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. STRONG WINDS WILL EASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE APPROACH IS HOLDING ON THE CLEAR SKIES
FOR NOW, BUT THE WALLS ARE CLOSING IN AND IT WON'T LAST MUCH
LONGER.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SNS WILL LIKELY CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING, BUT IT NOW LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT MRY WILL HOLD ON TO THE CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MODERATE NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY. NW WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A PROLONGED STRONG NW
BREEZE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE WINDS WILL
BUILD ROUGH WIND WAVES MIXED WITH A LOW SW SWELL.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 931 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR PACIFIC COAST BEACHES
FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CREATE AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER
WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS, AS WELL AS BREAKING WAVES UP TO 10
FEET. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES WITH MODERATE TO STEEP SLOPES ALONG THE NORTH BAY, SAN
FRANCISCO PENINSULA, AND SANTA CRUZ COASTS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN
SWEEP ACROSS THE SHORELINE WITHOUT WARNING, PULLING PEOPLE INTO
THE SEA FROM ROCKS, JETTIES AND BEACHES. DANGEROUS SWIMMING AND
SURFING CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED.
STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF
AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER, SURF
AND TIDE FORECASTS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MTR.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...FLYNN
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