500
FXUS66 KMTR 061808
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1108 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
- SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A WARMING
TREND ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
- MARINE LAYER STRATUS DEVELOPS EACH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
RETREATING TO THE COAST EACH MORNING AND AFTERNOON
- LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL CAUSES AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER
WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 929 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
NOT MUCH TO UPDATE THIS MORNING AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES. A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER ALLOWED FOR COASTAL STRATUS TO PENETRATE DEEPER
INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH, LOOKING AT A
SLOWER DISSIPATION OF THESE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO RETREAT TO THE COAST BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO SUNNY CONDITION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TODAY WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL! NO UPDATES
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
RGASS
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1203 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS HAVE COME IN PRETTY FAR INLAND, COMING INTO
THE SONOMA COUNTY VALLEYS, ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA AND INTO THE HILLS
SURROUNDING LIVERMORE, AND DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY. EXPECT EXTENSIVE
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, AS THE MARINE
LAYER SITS AROUND 2000 FEET DEEP, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL INLAND
CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN SOCKED IN.
ZOOM OUT TO THE LARGER SCALE AND YOU'LL FIND TROUGHING TO THE WEST
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, RIDGING TO THE EAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, AND WE'RE STUCK IN THE MIDDLE WITH THEM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE AND
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE INLAND VALLEYS, UP TO THE MIDDLE 90S IN THE WARMEST INTERIOR
SPOTS PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY, THE MIDDLE 60S TO
THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE BAYS, AND THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON REACH 20 TO 25
MPH THROUGH FAVORED GAPS, PASSES, AND THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1203 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE BROADLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY, WITH A
STRONGER AFTERNOON BREEZE POSSIBLE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY
RETROGRADES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE INLAND
AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH A
PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN LOCAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS,
TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS UP TO 105 WITHIN THE WARMEST SPOTS OF SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY. AFTERWARDS, ENSEMBLE MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE RIDGE AXIS PARING BACK TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME SUBTLE
COOLING, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
AS A FINAL NOTE, LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY; SEE THE BEACHES
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
STRATUS IS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR BAY AREA BUT IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER DIRECTLY ALONG THE COASTLINE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
CEILINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TONIGHT GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN TO THE REGION. GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT OAK AND SFO OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. FOR
APC, MAINTAINED A MORE PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND KEPT BORDERLINE MVFR-
IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY STAY ONSHORE WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED.
VICINITY OF SFO...SATELLITE SHOWS OVERCAST CONDITIONS CLEARING OUT
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY/SFO. MAINTAINED A TEMPO THROUGH 19Z FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS AS STRATUS CLEARS BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
IF STRATUS DOES NOT CLEAR AS FAST AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. EXPECT AN
EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR
CIGS AND LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STRATUS IS STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SF BAY BUT REMAINS PATCHY IN THE VICINITY OF SFO. STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STRATUS RETURNS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING STRATUS WITHIN THE
SALINAS VALLEY WHILE IT PERSISTS ALONG THE COASTLINE. CEILINGS
RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING, STARTING OUT AS MVFR BEFORE LOWERING TO
IFR OVERNIGHT, AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. NOT
CURRENTLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP BUT SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY (PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE SALINAS VALLEY)
MAY BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SALINAS
VALLEY WITH WINDS PEAKING AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 929 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
MODERATE SEAS PERSIST WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS, EXPECT BUILDING ROUGH WAVES
MIXED WITH A LOW SOUTHWEST SWELL.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 931 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR PACIFIC COAST BEACHES
FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CREATE AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER
WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS, AS WELL AS BREAKING WAVES UP TO 10
FEET. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES WITH MODERATE TO STEEP SLOPES ALONG THE NORTH BAY, SAN
FRANCISCO PENINSULA, AND SANTA CRUZ COASTS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN
SWEEP ACROSS THE SHORELINE WITHOUT WARNING, PULLING PEOPLE INTO
THE SEA FROM ROCKS, JETTIES AND BEACHES. DANGEROUS SWIMMING AND
SURFING CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED.
STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF
AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER, SURF
AND TIDE FORECASTS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MTR.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES
0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...NAVARRETE/KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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