342
FXUS66 KMTR 061939
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1239 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A WARMING
TREND ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
- MARINE LAYER STRATUS DEVELOPS EACH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEFORE RETREATING TO THE COAST EACH MORNING AND AFTERNOON
- LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL CAUSES AN INCREASED RISK OF
SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1238 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
THE MARINE LAYER WAS SLIGHTLY DEEPER OVERNIGHT WHICH RESULTED IN
FURTHER INLAND EXTENT INTO THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER,
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING GRADUAL CLEARING BACK TO THE
COAST AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST MAY VERY WELL NOT SEE THE SUN AT ALL TODAY, OR MAYBE JUST
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY COOL THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING, EXPECTING COASTAL STRATUS
TO RETURN BACK INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS
RETREAT TO THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1238 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY, YET TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AND POTENTIALLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. THAT SAID, ONLY EXPECTING MINOR HEATRISK WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF MODERATE IN THE WARMEST INTERIOR SPOTS ON
THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL, A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH STRATUS
KEEPING CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR THE COAST WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS
UP.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
STRATUS IS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR BAY AREA BUT IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER DIRECTLY ALONG THE COASTLINE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
CEILINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TONIGHT GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN TO THE REGION. GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT OAK AND SFO OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. FOR
APC, MAINTAINED A MORE PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND KEPT BORDERLINE MVFR-
IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY STAY ONSHORE WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED.
VICINITY OF SFO...SATELLITE SHOWS OVERCAST CONDITIONS CLEARING OUT
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY/SFO. MAINTAINED A TEMPO THROUGH 19Z FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS AS STRATUS CLEARS BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
IF STRATUS DOES NOT CLEAR AS FAST AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. EXPECT AN
EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR
CIGS AND LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STRATUS IS STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SF BAY BUT REMAINS PATCHY IN THE VICINITY OF SFO. STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STRATUS RETURNS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING STRATUS WITHIN THE
SALINAS VALLEY WHILE IT PERSISTS ALONG THE COASTLINE. CEILINGS
RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING, STARTING OUT AS MVFR BEFORE LOWERING TO
IFR OVERNIGHT, AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. NOT
CURRENTLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP BUT SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY (PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE SALINAS VALLEY)
MAY BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SALINAS
VALLEY WITH WINDS PEAKING AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 929 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
MODERATE SEAS PERSIST WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS, EXPECT BUILDING ROUGH WAVES
MIXED WITH A LOW SOUTHWEST SWELL.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1238 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PACIFIC COAST
BEACHES FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CREATE AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER
WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS, AS WELL AS BREAKING WAVES UP TO 10
FEET. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES WITH MODERATE TO STEEP SLOPES ALONG THE NORTH BAY, SAN
FRANCISCO PENINSULA, AND SANTA CRUZ COASTS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN
SWEEP ACROSS THE SHORELINE WITHOUT WARNING, PULLING PEOPLE INTO
THE SEA FROM ROCKS, JETTIES AND BEACHES. DANGEROUS SWIMMING AND
SURFING CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED.
STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF
AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER, SURF
AND TIDE FORECASTS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MTR.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES
0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...NAVARRETE/KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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