186
FXUS66 KMTR 230454
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
954 PM PDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1234 PM PDT WED JUL 22 2026
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1234 PM PDT WED JUL 22 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
THE MARINE LAYER REDEVELOPED OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 1,800 FEET IN
DEPTH AND RESULTED IN INLAND EXPANSION OF COASTAL STRATUS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO RESULTED IN FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND MARIN COASTAL RANGE (MOUNT TAMALPAIS) TO SEE
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES WITH UP TO 0.16" OF PRECIPITATION.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, PLACES SUCH AS THE NORTH BAY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION
MAY ONLY SEE STRATUS SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, IT
WILL REMAIN MUGGY FEELING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY REGIONWIDE. TEMPERATURES REGIONWIDE HAVE FALLEN TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WHILE THE NORTH BAY REGION IS EXPECTED TO
BE AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
AS WINDS SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, EXPECTING INLAND
EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THERE IS AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIST/DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT, YET WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD. LOW
CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP INLAND ARE FORECAST TO RETREAT TO THE COAST
BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY SO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST, IN THE 70S BAYSIDE,
AND 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE INTERIOR. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL COAST HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO EXCEED 100 DEG F IN
PLACES SUCH AS LOCKWOOD, BRADLEY AND PARKFIELD.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1234 PM PDT WED JUL 22 2026
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
WORK TO COMPRESS OUR MARINE LAYER AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH,
EXPECTING TYPICAL EBB AND FLOW OF STRATUS RETURNING INTO THE VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT AND RETREATING TO THE COAST BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT WED JUL 22 2026
CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENT AND TIMING OF MARINE STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY AIR
MIXING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN A PATCHY RETURN SO FAR
AFTER SUNSET. SATELLITE INDICATES SOME STRATUS LINGERING IN VICINITY
OF ALL THE TERMINALS EXCEPT KAPC. VALLEYS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL-IN
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LATER ONSET AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR 06Z ISSUANCE FOR
MOST TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF SFO...00Z BALLOON INDICATED A MARINE LAYER OF APPROX
1600-1800FT, BUT NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS WE USUALLY SEE THIS
TIME OF YEAR. DRY AIR MIXED OUT A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
SOON AFTER SUNSET AT KSFO. WILL KEEP THE ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
UNTIL LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LATE MORNING CLEARING TO
VFR. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL INTRUSION OF DRY AIR LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD LEAVES MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE VERACITY OF STRATUS
RETURN THURSDAY EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS IMMINENTLY, WITH A
DROP INTO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY AFTERNOON CLEARING TO VFR.
GIVEN THE DRY AIR MENTIONED ABOVE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST IS LOW.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT WED JUL 22 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE THIS WEEK BEFORE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
HURRICANE FAUSTO REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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