045
FXUS66 KMTR 230745
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1245 AM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1234 PM PDT WED JUL 22 2026
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1245 AM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
PATCHY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO REDEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR LINGERS, HOWEVER AREAL LOW CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE
COOLING (IMPROVED SINCE IT'S DRIER ALOFT) AND NEAR SURFACE COOL
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MORNING. PUTTING THE BRAKES ON LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR IS THE RECENT UPTICK IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WITH THE LOSS OF COLD WATER UPWELLING DUE TO THE RECENT NORTHWARD
MOVING REMNANT LOW CENTER PASSING BY TO OUR WEST. THE BUOYS SHOW
SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, ABOUT 3F TO 8F
ABOVE JULY NORMALS. HOWEVER, NORTHWEST WINDS (AND UPWELLING) WILL
RESUME IN OUR COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STABLE WEATHER. DAYTIME
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S/70S COASTSIDE TO THE 70S/80 BAYSIDE
AND 80S/90S INLAND INCLUDING 90S/100 OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1245 AM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND INLAND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE
BREEZES WILL PREVAIL WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG, POSSIBLY A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT WED JUL 22 2026
CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENT AND TIMING OF MARINE STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY AIR
MIXING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN A PATCHY RETURN SO FAR
AFTER SUNSET. SATELLITE INDICATES SOME STRATUS LINGERING IN VICINITY
OF ALL THE TERMINALS EXCEPT KAPC. VALLEYS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL-IN
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LATER ONSET AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR 06Z ISSUANCE FOR
MOST TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF SFO...00Z BALLOON INDICATED A MARINE LAYER OF APPROX
1600-1800FT, BUT NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS WE USUALLY SEE THIS
TIME OF YEAR. DRY AIR MIXED OUT A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
SOON AFTER SUNSET AT KSFO. WILL KEEP THE ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
UNTIL LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LATE MORNING CLEARING TO
VFR. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL INTRUSION OF DRY AIR LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD LEAVES MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE VERACITY OF STRATUS
RETURN THURSDAY EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS IMMINENTLY, WITH A
DROP INTO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY AFTERNOON CLEARING TO VFR.
GIVEN THE DRY AIR MENTIONED ABOVE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST IS LOW.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT WED JUL 22 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE THIS WEEK BEFORE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
HURRICANE FAUSTO REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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