246
FXUS66 KMTR 232016
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
116 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 114 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 114 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
STRATUS CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE INTERIOR. THUS, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 60S TO MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE COAST,
70S TO LOWER 80S BAYSIDE, AND 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL COAST HAS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL TO EXCEED 100 DEG F IN PLACES SUCH AS LOCKWOOD,
BRADLEY AND PARKFIELD.
FOR TONIGHT, STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN BACK TO THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING AND FILL LOCALLY INLAND INTO THE COASTAL ADJACENT VALLEYS.
HOWEVER, THE PATTERN ALOFT LOOKS TO BE THE SAME AS THIS MORNING,
SO EXPECT SOME DISRUPTIONS IN THE CLOUD DECK AT TIMES. PATCH FOG
IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY.
FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY'S AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. THE NOTEWORTHY THING TO MENTION IS THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FORECAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS IS A RESULT
OF MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AROUND THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER, THE
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH ALOFT TO JUST PRODUCE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 114 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS CONTINUING TO SHIFT TOWARDS TO
FOUR CORNERS AND WILL BUILD IN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL KEEP A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
IN PLACE WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS
THE INTERIOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THIS WILL WORK
THE KEEP THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHWEST REGION.
STILL EXPECTING TYPICAL EBB AND FLOW OF STRATUS RETURNING TO THE
COAST LATE IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. STRATUS
WILL RETREAT TO THE COAST BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING EACH DAY. LOOKING
AT THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER, WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
AVIATION
VFR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT AT HAF, SFO, AND OAK WHERE BORDERLINE MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS ARE LINGERING. HAF WILL REMAIN MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON BRIEF VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 23-
01Z FRIDAY. DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS
THE MARINE LAYER AS IT RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A DEPTH AROUND
1000 FEET. GIVEN THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER, SJC AND LVK WILL BE
SPARED FROM IMPACTFUL STRATUS THIS TAF PERIOD. MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON STRATUS ARRIVAL AND CEILINGS TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY IFR BUT WILL SOON BECOME VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES
(AROUND 15-20 KT) DOMINATING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING OF STRATUS AS IT MAY ARRIVE SOMETIME BETWEEN 08-11Z AND
PERSIST UNTIL 17-18Z FRIDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. MVFR STRATUS WILL ARRIVE AND
SCATTER OUT AFTER SFO DOES.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON UP TO 15 KT. IFR CEILINGS IMPACT MRY FIRST AROUND 08Z
BEFORE FILLING IN OVER SNS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS TO BE
BORDERLINE IFR-LIFR AT MRY AND HIGH-END IFR AT SNS. BOTH SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AROUND 17-18Z FRIDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 908 AM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS PERSIST WITH EMBEDDED STRONG GUSTS,
ALLOWING WAVE HEIGHTS TO REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE FAUSTO ALSO CONTINUES
TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 114 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
HURRICANE FAUSTO IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
COASTLINE OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS SUCH, SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, BREAKING WAVES CAN REACH UP TO 10
FEET ALONG SOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES AND BREAK POINTS
(LIKE SANTA CRUZ, PACIFICA, AND PARTS OF STINSON OR OCEAN BEACH).
SNEAKER WAVES CAN HAVE 20+ MINUTES IN BETWEEN THE LARGER SETS
(BREAKING WAVES) WITH SIGNIFICANT "FLAT/CALM LOOKING" TIMES BETWEEN
THEM. THIS CAN POTENTIALLY CATCHING BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE AND
RESULTING IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE COLD WATER; HENCE THE NAME
"SNEAKER". RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE STRONGEST
SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY
BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS,
AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE
OCEAN! A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
RGASS
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...NAVARRETE
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