109
FXUS66 KMTR 232348
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
448 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 114 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 114 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
STRATUS CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE INTERIOR. THUS, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 60S TO MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE COAST,
70S TO LOWER 80S BAYSIDE, AND 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL COAST HAS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL TO EXCEED 100 DEG F IN PLACES SUCH AS LOCKWOOD,
BRADLEY AND PARKFIELD.
FOR TONIGHT, STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN BACK TO THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING AND FILL LOCALLY INLAND INTO THE COASTAL ADJACENT VALLEYS.
HOWEVER, THE PATTERN ALOFT LOOKS TO BE THE SAME AS THIS MORNING,
SO EXPECT SOME DISRUPTIONS IN THE CLOUD DECK AT TIMES. PATCH FOG
IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY.
FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY'S AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. THE NOTEWORTHY THING TO MENTION IS THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FORECAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS IS A RESULT
OF MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AROUND THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER, THE
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH ALOFT TO JUST PRODUCE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 114 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS CONTINUING TO SHIFT TOWARDS TO
FOUR CORNERS AND WILL BUILD IN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL KEEP A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
IN PLACE WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS
THE INTERIOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THIS WILL WORK
THE KEEP THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHWEST REGION.
STILL EXPECTING TYPICAL EBB AND FLOW OF STRATUS RETURNING TO THE
COAST LATE IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. STRATUS
WILL RETREAT TO THE COAST BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING EACH DAY. LOOKING
AT THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER, WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 439 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS
OTHER THAN MONTEREY BAY WITH STRATUS CEILINGS ARRIVING SOONER
THAT FAR SOUTH. DRIER AIR WORKING ON A 1200FT-1600FT COMPRESSED
MARINE LAYER DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION, CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE
THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LATER
TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FILL IN. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CEILINGS IN THE HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE FRIDAY AND HAVE LEFT
THEM OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING. GUSTY ONSHORE WIND AT KSFO
WILL EASE SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT KOAK.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE AFTER
SUNSET WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY DROP TO
IFR/LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY LATER
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
NW WINDS PREVAIL AS MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES WITH STRONG GUSTS.
MODERATE WIND DRIVEN SEAS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LONG
PERIOD S TO SW SWELL FROM HURRICANE FAUSTO APPROACHES OUR COASTAL
WATERS, PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 114 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
HURRICANE FAUSTO IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
COASTLINE OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS SUCH, SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, BREAKING WAVES CAN REACH UP TO 10
FEET ALONG SOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES AND BREAK POINTS
(LIKE SANTA CRUZ, PACIFICA, AND PARTS OF STINSON OR OCEAN BEACH).
SNEAKER WAVES CAN HAVE 20+ MINUTES IN BETWEEN THE LARGER SETS
(BREAKING WAVES) WITH SIGNIFICANT "FLAT/CALM LOOKING" TIMES BETWEEN
THEM. THIS CAN POTENTIALLY CATCHING BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE AND
RESULTING IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE COLD WATER; HENCE THE NAME
"SNEAKER". RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE STRONGEST
SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY
BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS,
AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE
OCEAN! A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
RGASS
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...NAVARRETE
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