797
FXUS66 KMTR 240524
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1024 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 114 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 114 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
STRATUS CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE INTERIOR. THUS, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 60S TO MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE COAST,
70S TO LOWER 80S BAYSIDE, AND 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL COAST HAS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL TO EXCEED 100 DEG F IN PLACES SUCH AS LOCKWOOD,
BRADLEY AND PARKFIELD.
FOR TONIGHT, STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN BACK TO THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING AND FILL LOCALLY INLAND INTO THE COASTAL ADJACENT VALLEYS.
HOWEVER, THE PATTERN ALOFT LOOKS TO BE THE SAME AS THIS MORNING,
SO EXPECT SOME DISRUPTIONS IN THE CLOUD DECK AT TIMES. PATCH FOG
IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY.
FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY'S AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. THE NOTEWORTHY THING TO MENTION IS THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FORECAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS IS A RESULT
OF MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AROUND THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER, THE
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH ALOFT TO JUST PRODUCE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 114 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS CONTINUING TO SHIFT TOWARDS TO
FOUR CORNERS AND WILL BUILD IN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL KEEP A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
IN PLACE WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS
THE INTERIOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THIS WILL WORK
THE KEEP THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHWEST REGION.
STILL EXPECTING TYPICAL EBB AND FLOW OF STRATUS RETURNING TO THE
COAST LATE IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. STRATUS
WILL RETREAT TO THE COAST BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING EACH DAY. LOOKING
AT THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER, WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
STRATUS COVERAGE IS LIMITED ATTM AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COAST
LINE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES AN EXPECTATION THAT ALL
TERMINALS WILL DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS
AND KSTS DROPPING TO IFR BY SUNRISE. GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS DECIDED TO KEEP SOUTH BAY TERMINALS VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING OVER THE TERMINALS. ONCE AT MVFR, CLEARING
TIMES SHOULD BE BY LATE MORNING WITH KOAK FIRST FOLLOWED BY KSFO
AN HOUR LATER AS STRATUS RETREATS BACK TO THE COAST UNDER A
COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR, WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF STRATUS
ATTM DESPITE A CEILING EARLIER IN THE EVENING AT KMRY. STRATUS IS
FORMING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE PENINSULA AS WIND BLOWS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITHOUT MUCH BACK BUILDING INTO THE BAY. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS CONFIDENT THAT MVFR THEN IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP,
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS. CLEARING IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST WITH VFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES WITH STRONG GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE WIND DRIVEN SEAS.
HURRICANE FAUSTO WILL PRODUCE LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL
THAT PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 114 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
HURRICANE FAUSTO IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
COASTLINE OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS SUCH, SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, BREAKING WAVES CAN REACH UP TO 10
FEET ALONG SOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES AND BREAK POINTS
(LIKE SANTA CRUZ, PACIFICA, AND PARTS OF STINSON OR OCEAN BEACH).
SNEAKER WAVES CAN HAVE 20+ MINUTES IN BETWEEN THE LARGER SETS
(BREAKING WAVES) WITH SIGNIFICANT "FLAT/CALM LOOKING" TIMES BETWEEN
THEM. THIS CAN POTENTIALLY CATCHING BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE AND
RESULTING IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE COLD WATER; HENCE THE NAME
"SNEAKER". RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE STRONGEST
SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY
BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS,
AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE
OCEAN! A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
RGASS
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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