409
FXUS66 KMTR 241143
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
443 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK
- GRADUAL WARMING SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK ON A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT AND TIMING BUT EXPECTING LESS
COVERAGE THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS, HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY THE RUSSIAN RIVER
VALLEY IN THE NORTH BAY. STRATUS SHOULD ALSO BE QUICKER TO RETREAT
BACK TO THE COASTLINE, BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYERS MIXES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR AS YESTERDAY AND REMAIN SO INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE EXPANSIVE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE EPAC HAS US
COMFORTABLY IN THE MIDDLE, WITH STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE'S NO
DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE. WE
WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS
FAUSTO DRIFTS NORTHWEST AND MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHING GETTING SHIFTED NORTH. SEE BEACHES
SECTION FOR IMPACTS FROM FAUSTO ALONG OUR PACIFIC COASTLINE FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THE MARINE LAYER IS 1500 FEET AS MEASURED BY THE 12Z WEATHER
BALLOON. THAT'S SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, BUT THE STRATUS COVERAGE IS
A LITTLE MORE PATCHY, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE SOME
DRIER AIR HAS MIXED IN. FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT SANTA ROSA AND WILL
VERY LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAF THIS
AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO...IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 15Z
OR SO BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SKIES
SCATTER OUT BEFORE THEN THANKS TO DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
THE SFO-SAC GRADIENT IS +2.4 MB, SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT POSSIBLE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SKIES WILL STAY MORE CLEAR OVER THE APPROACH
COMPARED TO THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...THE STRATUS IMPACTING MRY AND SNS IS
DETACHED FROM THE MAIN STRATUS DECK OVER THE OCEAN. SNS IS
MANAGING TO DODGE CEILINGS AT THE MOMENT, BUT IT SHOULD GO BROKEN
IFR AT ANY MINUTE WITH THE WALLS CLOSING IN. MRY WILL STAY IFR
UNTIL 18Z OR SO, AND THERE'S A DECENT CHANCE IT DROPS TO LIFR
TEMPORARILY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES WITH STRONG GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE WIND DRIVEN SEAS.
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE FAUSTO WILL ARRIVE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 114 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
HURRICANE FAUSTO IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
COASTLINE OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS SUCH, SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, BREAKING WAVES CAN REACH UP TO 10
FEET ALONG SOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES AND BREAK POINTS
(LIKE SANTA CRUZ, PACIFICA, AND PARTS OF STINSON OR OCEAN BEACH).
SNEAKER WAVES CAN HAVE 20+ MINUTES IN BETWEEN THE LARGER SETS
(BREAKING WAVES) WITH SIGNIFICANT "FLAT/CALM LOOKING" TIMES BETWEEN
THEM. THIS CAN POTENTIALLY CATCHING BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE AND
RESULTING IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE COLD WATER; HENCE THE NAME
"SNEAKER". RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE STRONGEST
SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY
BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS,
AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE
OCEAN! A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
RGASS
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...FLYNN
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