019
FXUS66 KMTR 250019
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
519 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK
- GRADUAL WARMING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING MODERATE HEATRISK POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1206 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
STRATUS HAS CLEARED TO THE COAST AND OUT OVER THE PACIFIC THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FACING LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST,
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BAYSHORE AND SANTA CRUZ REGION, 80S TO
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND MID-TO-UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WARMEST SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST.
FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST
TO COMPRESS SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 1,000 FEET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER, STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER WILL MIX DOWN AND MAKE FOR A
DIFFICULT CLOUD COVER FORECAST. THAT SAID, LOOK FOR SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AS THIS MORNING WITH LESS OF AN INLAND EXTEND INTO THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE
COAST, IN THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY, AND INTO SANTA ROSA/PETALUMA
REGION. LOOKING LIKE A RINSE AND REPEAT FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1206 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL KEEP A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER IN PLACE
WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS THE INTERIOR
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO
EXPAND WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL
WARMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT, EXPECTING TYPICAL
EBB AND FLOW OF STRATUS RETURNING TO THE COAST LATE IN THE EVENING
AND INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL RETREAT TO THE COAST
BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING EACH DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL BY LATE
NEXT WEEK TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS HEADED INTO THE EVENING HOURS CLOUD FREE,
WITH ONLY A SLIVER OF STRATUS PASSING SOUTH OFFSHORE. THE MARINE
LAYER CONTINUES TO BE UNORGANIZED. ONCE WE DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE STRATUS REDEVELOP, BUT THE EXTENT AND TIMING
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT WITH VERY DRY AIR WORKING ON TOP OF THE
MARINE LAYER. OVERALL, WHERE WE SEE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP,
SHOULD BE LATER THAN OUR NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERN AND CLEAR SOONER
THAN NORMAL SATURDAY MORNING WITH MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS BEING
A POTENTIAL EXCEPTION.
VICINITY OF SFO...EXPECTING SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE
ORGANIZED ENOUGH UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WINDOW SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY SHORT COMPARED TO NORMAL 'NO SKY JULY' CONDITIONS WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED BEFORE MID-MORNING. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET, INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MONTEREY TERMINALS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW ON WHETHER IT WILL HAPPEN, AND IF SO, WHEN. IF/WHEN THEY
DEVELOP EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AT
KMRY, AND COULD STAY SOCKED IN UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING AT KSNS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FOCE
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE WIND DRIVEN
SEAS WILL ALSO PREVAIL, RESULTING IN POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS, EVEN ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF SF AND MONTEREY BAYS.
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 830 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
HURRICANE FAUSTO IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
COASTLINE OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THIS
WEEKEND. AS SUCH, SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, BREAKING WAVES CAN REACH UP TO 10 FEET
ALONG SOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES AND BREAK POINTS (LIKE
SANTA CRUZ, PACIFICA, AND PARTS OF STINSON OR OCEAN BEACH). SNEAKER
WAVES CAN HAVE 20+ MINUTES IN BETWEEN THE LARGER SETS (BREAKING
WAVES) WITH SIGNIFICANT "FLAT/CALM LOOKING" TIMES BETWEEN THEM. THIS
CAN POTENTIALLY CATCH BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN PEOPLE
BEING SWEPT INTO THE COLD WATER; HENCE THE NAME "SNEAKER". RIP
CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM
SHORE. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH,
AND AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER
INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN! A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
RGASS
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...BAIN
MARINE...BAIN
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