704
FXUS66 KMTR 251138
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
438 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK
- GRADUAL WARMING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
MODERATE HEATRISK POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1222 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AMBIENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM 24HRS AGO AND NO GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL UNFOLD MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
WHAT WE SAW TODAY. DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO
DISRUPT THE INLAND INTRUSION WE NORMALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT
NOT PREVENT IT ENTIRELY, AS PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EPAC AND
THE WESTERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION CONTINUE TO INTERSECT OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL CONCERN IS THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THAT GOES
INTO EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
DISTANT FAUSTO WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS SNEAKER WAVES AND RIPTIDES.
NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN AND SWIM NEAR LIFEGUARDS THIS
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1222 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
DAY-TO-DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE A LITTLE MORE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS WESTWARD AND FAUSTO HELPS TO PUSH
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH NORTH AND WE BEGIN TO SEE H50 HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE EPAC. WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK
ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 425 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
SURPRISE! ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING. HONESTLY WE DID NOT
EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN, SO WHAT DID WE MISS? BUOY OBSERVATIONS
REVEAL THAT THE DEW POINT HAS DROPPED BELOW THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. THAT MAKES IT VERY HARD TO SATURATION TO OCCUR AS THE
AIR TEMP STRUGGLES TO GET ANY COLDER THAN THE OCEAN. SO DRY AIR
HAS MIXED IN TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER, LOWERING THE DEW POINT AND
CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS. THE 12Z WEATHER BALLOON FOUND A 900 FT
UNSATURATED MARINE LAYER WITH MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS DRY AIR WILL BE WITH US ALL DAY, SO ENJOY THE
CLEAR SKIES, AVIATORS!
VICINITY OF SFO...IT'S UNUSUAL TO SEE THE CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASE
AT THIS HOUR, BUT THAT'S BEEN THE TREND FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE DRY AIR INFILTRATES THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY ALL DAY FROM THE TYPICAL WESTERLY DIRECTION.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...THERE IS A SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS NORTH
OF SNS, BUT IT HASN'T SHOWN MUCH AMBITION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE STANDARD DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WIND REGIME AT BOTH MRY AND SNS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
A FRESH NW BREEZE WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE INCREASING
TO A STRONG BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL FROM A PAIR OF DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 830 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
HURRICANE FAUSTO IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
COASTLINE OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THIS
WEEKEND. AS SUCH, SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, BREAKING WAVES CAN REACH UP TO 10 FEET
ALONG SOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES AND BREAK POINTS (LIKE
SANTA CRUZ, PACIFICA, AND PARTS OF STINSON OR OCEAN BEACH). SNEAKER
WAVES CAN HAVE 20+ MINUTES IN BETWEEN THE LARGER SETS (BREAKING
WAVES) WITH SIGNIFICANT "FLAT/CALM LOOKING" TIMES BETWEEN THEM. THIS
CAN POTENTIALLY CATCH BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN PEOPLE
BEING SWEPT INTO THE COLD WATER; HENCE THE NAME "SNEAKER". RIP
CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM
SHORE. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH,
AND AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER
INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN! A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
RGASS
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...FLYNN
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