386
FXUS66 KMTR 251612
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
912 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK
- GRADUAL WARMING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
MODERATE HEATRISK POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 911 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
STRATUS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING, DESPITE A MARINE LAYER OF AROUND 900 FEET PER THE 12Z
OAK UPPER AIR SOUNDING. THAT SAID, VERY SHALLOW FOG WAS OBSERVED
IN THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY (WHICH HAS SINCE DISSIPATED) AND
STRATUS WAS OBSERVED VIA SATELLITE ALONG THE SAN MATEO COASTLINE,
INTO THE WESTERN HILLS OF THE EAST BAY, AND AROUND THE MONTEREY
BAY REGION. CURRENTLY SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING LINGERING
STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COASTLINE. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD
COVER, TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ALLOW FOR THE MARINE INFLUENCES TO
STILL BE THERE.
RGASS
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1222 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AMBIENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM 24HRS AGO AND NO GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL UNFOLD MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
WHAT WE SAW TODAY. DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO
DISRUPT THE INLAND INTRUSION WE NORMALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT
NOT PREVENT IT ENTIRELY, AS PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EPAC AND
THE WESTERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION CONTINUE TO INTERSECT OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL CONCERN IS THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THAT GOES
INTO EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
DISTANT FAUSTO WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS SNEAKER WAVES AND RIPTIDES.
NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN AND SWIM NEAR LIFEGUARDS THIS
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1222 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
DAY-TO-DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE A LITTLE MORE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS WESTWARD AND FAUSTO HELPS TO PUSH
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH NORTH AND WE BEGIN TO SEE H50 HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE EPAC. WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK
ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 425 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
SURPRISE! ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING. HONESTLY WE DID NOT
EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN, SO WHAT DID WE MISS? BUOY OBSERVATIONS
REVEAL THAT THE DEW POINT HAS DROPPED BELOW THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. THAT MAKES IT VERY HARD TO SATURATION TO OCCUR AS THE
AIR TEMP STRUGGLES TO GET ANY COLDER THAN THE OCEAN. SO DRY AIR
HAS MIXED IN TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER, LOWERING THE DEW POINT AND
CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS. THE 12Z WEATHER BALLOON FOUND A 900 FT
UNSATURATED MARINE LAYER WITH MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS DRY AIR WILL BE WITH US ALL DAY, SO ENJOY THE
CLEAR SKIES, AVIATORS!
VICINITY OF SFO...IT'S UNUSUAL TO SEE THE CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASE
AT THIS HOUR, BUT THAT'S BEEN THE TREND FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE DRY AIR INFILTRATES THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY ALL DAY FROM THE TYPICAL WESTERLY DIRECTION.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...THERE IS A SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS NORTH
OF SNS, BUT IT HASN'T SHOWN MUCH AMBITION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE STANDARD DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WIND REGIME AT BOTH MRY AND SNS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 911 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IS IMPACTING OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM
DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH NW
BREEZES WITH EMBEDDED GALE FORCE GUSTS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NW BREEZES INCREASE TO STRONG BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS MODERATE SEAS BUILD TO ROUGH IN RESPONSE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 911 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ARE GENERATING A LONG-
PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WHICH HAS REACHED THE COASTLINE OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. AS SUCH, SNEAKER WAVES AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, BREAKING
WAVES CAN REACH UP TO 10 FEET ALONG SOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES AND BREAK POINTS (LIKE SANTA CRUZ, PACIFICA, AND PARTS OF
STINSON OR OCEAN BEACH). SNEAKER WAVES CAN HAVE 20+ MINUTES IN
BETWEEN THE LARGER SETS (BREAKING WAVES) WITH SIGNIFICANT "FLAT/CALM
LOOKING" TIMES BETWEEN THEM. THIS CAN POTENTIALLY CATCH BEACHGOERS
BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE COLD WATER;
HENCE THE NAME "SNEAKER". RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE
STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF
POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS,
BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN! THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST.
RGASS
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...NAVARRETE
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