555
FXUS66 KMTR 251819
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1119 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK
- GRADUAL WARMING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
MODERATE HEATRISK POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 911 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
STRATUS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING, DESPITE A MARINE LAYER OF AROUND 900 FEET PER THE 12Z
OAK UPPER AIR SOUNDING. THAT SAID, VERY SHALLOW FOG WAS OBSERVED
IN THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY (WHICH HAS SINCE DISSIPATED) AND
STRATUS WAS OBSERVED VIA SATELLITE ALONG THE SAN MATEO COASTLINE,
INTO THE WESTERN HILLS OF THE EAST BAY, AND AROUND THE MONTEREY
BAY REGION. CURRENTLY SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING LINGERING
STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COASTLINE. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD
COVER, TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ALLOW FOR THE MARINE INFLUENCES TO
STILL BE THERE.
RGASS
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1222 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AMBIENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM 24HRS AGO AND NO GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL UNFOLD MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
WHAT WE SAW TODAY. DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO
DISRUPT THE INLAND INTRUSION WE NORMALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT
NOT PREVENT IT ENTIRELY, AS PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EPAC AND
THE WESTERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION CONTINUE TO INTERSECT OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL CONCERN IS THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THAT GOES
INTO EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
DISTANT FAUSTO WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS SNEAKER WAVES AND RIPTIDES.
NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN AND SWIM NEAR LIFEGUARDS THIS
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1222 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
DAY-TO-DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE A LITTLE MORE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS WESTWARD AND FAUSTO HELPS TO PUSH
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH NORTH AND WE BEGIN TO SEE H50 HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE EPAC. WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK
ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
IT IS A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. WINDS REMAIN MODERATE
THROUGH THE DAY AND DIMINISH TO GENTLE BREEZES OVERNIGHT. NORTH BAY
TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE S-SW WINDS AND TERMINALS SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE WILL GENERALLY BE W-NW. A COMPRESSED AND DRY MARINE
LAYER WITH A DEPTH OF ROUGHLY 1000 FEET RETURNS OVERNIGHT AFTER ~08Z
SATURDAY. IT MAY BE TOO COMPRESSED TO FILL IN OVER SJC AND LVK. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER STS WILL EXPERIENCE FOGGY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SUFFICIENT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE THAT MAY
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION EVEN WITH A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER, LIGHT
WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD.
VICINITY OF SFO...CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES WITH 30 KT
GUSTS PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP OVER THE
TERMINAL AROUND 10Z SATURDAY THROUGH 17-18Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON
THE EXACT TIMING, THOUGH 09-10Z IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND
WE'VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. MAY DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS
BEFORE AND SCATTER OUT AFTER SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY. IFR CEILINGS ARRIVE AT MRY FIRST BEFORE FILLING IN OVER SNS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL OF STRATUS, MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN IT WILL SCATTER OUT OF THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 911 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IS IMPACTING OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM
DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH NW
BREEZES WITH EMBEDDED GALE FORCE GUSTS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NW BREEZES INCREASE TO STRONG BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS MODERATE SEAS BUILD TO ROUGH IN RESPONSE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 911 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ARE GENERATING A LONG-
PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WHICH HAS REACHED THE COASTLINE OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. AS SUCH, SNEAKER WAVES AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, BREAKING
WAVES CAN REACH UP TO 10 FEET ALONG SOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES AND BREAK POINTS (LIKE SANTA CRUZ, PACIFICA, AND PARTS OF
STINSON OR OCEAN BEACH). SNEAKER WAVES CAN HAVE 20+ MINUTES IN
BETWEEN THE LARGER SETS (BREAKING WAVES) WITH SIGNIFICANT "FLAT/CALM
LOOKING" TIMES BETWEEN THEM. THIS CAN POTENTIALLY CATCH BEACHGOERS
BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE COLD WATER;
HENCE THE NAME "SNEAKER". RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE
STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF
POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS,
BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN! THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST.
RGASS
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...NAVARRETE
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