963
FXUS66 KMTR 251958
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1258 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1254 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK
- GRADUAL WARMING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING
MODERATE HEATRISK POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1254 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM. THE WARMEST WILL
BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S AND MID-TO-UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE WARMEST PORTIONS OF THE FAR INTERIOR VALLEYS. STRATUS
IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THE COASTAL ADJACENT VALLEYS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST AS THIS MORNING, SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE AT BEST. THE MARINE LAYER IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 1,000 FEET IN DEPTH, SO WE'LL SEE HOW
TONIGHT PANS OUT. FOR SUNDAY, EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS
TODAY.
A LONG-PERIOD (20-22 SECOND) SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS ARRIVED ALONG
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST! BE ADVISED, SUNNY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASE IN VISITORS
(TOURIST, OUT OF STATE, AND EVEN LOCALS TRYING TO ESCAPE THE
INLAND HEAT). THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO IMPACT CONDITIONS ALONG OUR COASTLINE. FOR MORE
ON THIS, PLEASE SEE THE BEACHES SECTION OF THE AFD BELOW.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1254 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TROUGHING
PERSISTS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR, IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD AND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALLOWING FOR COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE
COAST. BY THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
IT IS A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. WINDS REMAIN MODERATE
THROUGH THE DAY AND DIMINISH TO GENTLE BREEZES OVERNIGHT. NORTH BAY
TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE S-SW WINDS AND TERMINALS SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE WILL GENERALLY BE W-NW. A COMPRESSED AND DRY MARINE
LAYER WITH A DEPTH OF ROUGHLY 1000 FEET RETURNS OVERNIGHT AFTER ~08Z
SATURDAY. IT MAY BE TOO COMPRESSED TO FILL IN OVER SJC AND LVK. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER STS WILL EXPERIENCE FOGGY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SUFFICIENT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE THAT MAY
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION EVEN WITH A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER, LIGHT
WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD.
VICINITY OF SFO...CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES WITH 30 KT
GUSTS PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP OVER THE
TERMINAL AROUND 10Z SATURDAY THROUGH 17-18Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON
THE EXACT TIMING, THOUGH 09-10Z IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND
WE'VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. MAY DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS
BEFORE AND SCATTER OUT AFTER SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY. IFR CEILINGS ARRIVE AT MRY FIRST BEFORE FILLING IN OVER SNS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL OF STRATUS, MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN IT WILL SCATTER OUT OF THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 911 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IS IMPACTING OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM
DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH NW
BREEZES WITH EMBEDDED GALE FORCE GUSTS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NW BREEZES INCREASE TO STRONG BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS MODERATE SEAS BUILD TO ROUGH IN RESPONSE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 911 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ARE GENERATING A LONG-
PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WHICH HAS REACHED THE COASTLINE OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. AS SUCH, SNEAKER WAVES AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, BREAKING
WAVES CAN REACH UP TO 10 FEET ALONG SOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES AND BREAK POINTS (LIKE SANTA CRUZ, PACIFICA, AND PARTS OF
STINSON OR OCEAN BEACH). SNEAKER WAVES CAN HAVE 20+ MINUTES IN
BETWEEN THE LARGER SETS (BREAKING WAVES) WITH SIGNIFICANT "FLAT/CALM
LOOKING" TIMES BETWEEN THEM. THIS CAN POTENTIALLY CATCH BEACHGOERS
BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE COLD
TURBULENT OCEAN; HENCE THE NAME "SNEAKER". RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM
NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY
FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE
NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN! THE BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
RGASS
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...NAVARRETE
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