029
FXUS66 KMTR 260443
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
943 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1254 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK
- GRADUAL WARMING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING
MODERATE HEATRISK POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1254 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM. THE WARMEST WILL
BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S AND MID-TO-UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE WARMEST PORTIONS OF THE FAR INTERIOR VALLEYS. STRATUS
IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THE COASTAL ADJACENT VALLEYS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST AS THIS MORNING, SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE AT BEST. THE MARINE LAYER IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 1,000 FEET IN DEPTH, SO WE'LL SEE HOW
TONIGHT PANS OUT. FOR SUNDAY, EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS
TODAY.
A LONG-PERIOD (20-22 SECOND) SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS ARRIVED ALONG
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST! BE ADVISED, SUNNY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASE IN VISITORS
(TOURIST, OUT OF STATE, AND EVEN LOCALS TRYING TO ESCAPE THE
INLAND HEAT). THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO IMPACT CONDITIONS ALONG OUR COASTLINE. FOR MORE
ON THIS, PLEASE SEE THE BEACHES SECTION OF THE AFD BELOW.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1254 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TROUGHING
PERSISTS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR, IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD AND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALLOWING FOR COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE
COAST. BY THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 938 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
CURRENTLY VFR (EXCEPT FOR HAF WHICH IS IFR) WITH STRATUS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COASTAL TERMINALS BECOMING
IFR. WITH A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER AROUND 1,100 FT, CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY BE IFR/LOW-END MVFR AND DIFFICULT TO PENETRATE INLAND.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON IT REACHING BAYSHORE TERMINALS, LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IT REACHING INTERIOR TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD VFR IS
EXPECTED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. MODERATE (60%)
CONFIDENCE ON A CEILING RETURNING TONIGHT, LIKELY IFR/LOW-END MVFR,
WITH VFR BY LATE MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MRY
AND VFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT SNS. HIGH (80%) CONFIDENCE ON
CEILINGS RETURNING TONIGHT, LIKELY IFR, WITH VFR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE INNER AND OUTER
WATERS AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FREQUENT GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL JET REGION OF BIG SUR.
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY, BUILDING TO BECOME
ROUGH IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WILL
CONTINUE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 911 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ARE GENERATING A LONG-
PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WHICH HAS REACHED THE COASTLINE OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. AS SUCH, SNEAKER WAVES AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, BREAKING
WAVES CAN REACH UP TO 10 FEET ALONG SOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES AND BREAK POINTS (LIKE SANTA CRUZ, PACIFICA, AND PARTS OF
STINSON OR OCEAN BEACH). SNEAKER WAVES CAN HAVE 20+ MINUTES IN
BETWEEN THE LARGER SETS (BREAKING WAVES) WITH SIGNIFICANT "FLAT/CALM
LOOKING" TIMES BETWEEN THEM. THIS CAN POTENTIALLY CATCH BEACHGOERS
BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE COLD
TURBULENT OCEAN; HENCE THE NAME "SNEAKER". RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM
NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY
FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE
NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN! THE BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
RGASS
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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