581
FXUS66 KMTR 260733
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1233 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
EARLY IN THE WEEK
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK
- GRADUAL WARMING STARTING MIDWEEK, WITH INCREASING MODERATE
HEATRISK FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1232 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE
PACNW TODAY, SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
STRATUS FORMING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST,
WHICH SHOULD BRING STRATUS TO MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS AND DOWN INTO
THE MONTEREY BAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW DEEP THE MARINE LAYER
GETS TONIGHT, THOUGH CURRENT THINKING IS IT'LL BE BETWEEN 500-
1000FT. ANY STRATUS THAT FORMS TONIGHT SHOULD RETREAT TO THE COAST
BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1232 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER AN ELONGATED TROUGH THROUGH EARLY TO MIDWEEK,
LEADING TO TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE DAYS. LOOK FOR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES,
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND THE RETURN OF
STRATUS. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD GET TO ABOUT 1000FT FOR THE NEXT
FEW NIGHTS, WITH IT A 500-1000FT MARINE LAYER BY MIDWEEK FOR THOSE
ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS WHEN WE START TO SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTWEST BUILD INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND BEGIN
PUSHING THE TROUGH AND MAKING IT A BIT MORE COMPACT. ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST, AS WE GO FROM A
TROUGH TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED
INLAND, BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKELY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 938 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
CURRENTLY VFR (EXCEPT FOR HAF WHICH IS IFR) WITH STRATUS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COASTAL TERMINALS BECOMING
IFR. WITH A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER AROUND 1,100 FT, CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY BE IFR/LOW-END MVFR AND DIFFICULT TO PENETRATE INLAND.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON IT REACHING BAYSHORE TERMINALS, LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IT REACHING INTERIOR TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD VFR IS
EXPECTED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. MODERATE (60%)
CONFIDENCE ON A CEILING RETURNING TONIGHT, LIKELY IFR/LOW-END MVFR,
WITH VFR BY LATE MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MRY
AND VFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT SNS. HIGH (80%) CONFIDENCE ON
CEILINGS RETURNING TONIGHT, LIKELY IFR, WITH VFR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE INNER AND OUTER
WATERS AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FREQUENT GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL JET REGION OF BIG SUR.
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY, BUILDING TO BECOME
ROUGH IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WILL
CONTINUE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 911 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ARE GENERATING A LONG-
PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WHICH HAS REACHED THE COASTLINE OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. AS SUCH, SNEAKER WAVES AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, BREAKING
WAVES CAN REACH UP TO 10 FEET ALONG SOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES AND BREAK POINTS (LIKE SANTA CRUZ, PACIFICA, AND PARTS OF
STINSON OR OCEAN BEACH). SNEAKER WAVES CAN HAVE 20+ MINUTES IN
BETWEEN THE LARGER SETS (BREAKING WAVES) WITH SIGNIFICANT "FLAT/CALM
LOOKING" TIMES BETWEEN THEM. THIS CAN POTENTIALLY CATCH BEACHGOERS
BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE COLD
TURBULENT OCEAN; HENCE THE NAME "SNEAKER". RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM
NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY
FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE
NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN! THE BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
RGASS
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-
10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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