882
FXUS66 KMTR 261841
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1141 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 505 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK
- GRADUAL WARMING STARTING MIDWEEK, WITH INCREASING MODERATE
HEATRISK FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE DIABLO AND SANTA LUCIA
RANGES THIS WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 943 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN
EMPHASIS ON TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER
MESSAGING. DESPITE 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES RUNNING 2-5
DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
SHOULD PROMOTE A SHARP DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE MAINLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST. HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 90S
WITH A FEW LOCALES TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE LATEST
UPDATE.
ELEVATED BREEZES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOME OF THE FAVORED GAPS AND
PASSES, WILL APPROACH THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. DESPITE THE FLOW
BEING ONSHORE, THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY NOT PROVIDE MUCH OF A
BOOST TO THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY ACROSS THESE INTERIOR REGIONS.
FUELS CONTINUE TO CURE AND AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH MID-WEEK FOR THE
INTERIOR NORTH BAY, EAST BAY, AND CENTRAL COAST. ADDITIONALLY,
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY ONLY RANGE
BETWEEN 25 AND 50% ABOVE 2500' ELEVATION ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS, SANTA LUCIA, AND DIABLO RANGES. BE SURE TO AVOID
ACTIVITIES THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL COAST, WHERE VEGETATION DRYNESS IS THE GREATEST. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO EXAMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATER THIS WEEK AS A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD WESTWARD. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
EAST BAY AND CENTRAL COAST INTERIOR WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
IMPACTFUL HEAT AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1232 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE
PACNW TODAY, SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
STRATUS FORMING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST,
WHICH SHOULD BRING STRATUS TO MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS AND DOWN INTO
THE MONTEREY BAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW DEEP THE MARINE LAYER
GETS TONIGHT, THOUGH CURRENT THINKING IS IT'LL BE BETWEEN 500-
1000FT. ANY STRATUS THAT FORMS TONIGHT SHOULD RETREAT TO THE COAST
BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1232 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER AN ELONGATED TROUGH THROUGH EARLY TO MIDWEEK,
LEADING TO TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE DAYS. LOOK FOR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES,
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND THE RETURN OF
STRATUS. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD GET TO ABOUT 1000FT FOR THE NEXT
FEW NIGHTS, WITH IT A 500-1000FT MARINE LAYER BY MIDWEEK FOR THOSE
ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS WHEN WE START TO SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTWEST BUILD INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND BEGIN
PUSHING THE TROUGH AND MAKING IT A BIT MORE COMPACT. ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST, AS WE GO FROM A
TROUGH TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED
INLAND, BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKELY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THE MARINE STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF MOST TERMINALS BY 19-20Z,
EXCEPT FOR HAF WHERE IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER UNTIL ABOUT 21Z.
MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZES PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND EASE OVERNIGHT.
THE MARINE LAYER PATTERN CONTINUES AGAIN THIS TAF PERIOD WITH AN
EXPECTED DEPTH AROUND 1200 FEET. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER APC, LVK,
AND SJC WILL DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS CONTINUES TO
REMAIN PATCHY OFFSHORE. LEFT IT AS SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS FOR NOW,
BUT IF THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE ORGANIZED TONIGHT, THEY MAY ROLL IN
AT THOSE RESPECTIVE TIMES. GIVEN THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS,
STS MAY EXPERIENCE RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY HOW IMPACTFUL AND PERSISTENT IT WILL BE.
VICINITY OF SFO...A STEADY FEED OF IFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 19-
20Z. VFR THEREAFTER WITH MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES (~15 KT)
INCREASING TO FRESH (~18 KT) WITH EMBEDDED GUSTS AROUND 30 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 10Z MONDAY GIVEN THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD TRANSITION TO VFR AROUND 19Z MONDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZES. ONSHORE WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS
MOVES INLAND BRINGING IFR CEILINGS AT BOTH MRY AND SNS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF THE STRATUS. MRY MAY EXPERIENCE LOW-
END IFR MEANWHILE SNS MAY BE CLOSER TO BKN008-010.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 914 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026
FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES GRADUALLY INCREASE TO STRONG BY TUESDAY
WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS. HOWEVER, FREQUENT GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG BIG SUR. IN RESPONSE, MODERATE SEAS
GRADUALLY BUILD TO ROUGH BY WEDNESDAY. DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY IN THE EAST PACIFIC CONTINUES TO SEND LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY SWELLS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 911 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ARE GENERATING A LONG-
PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WHICH HAS REACHED THE COASTLINE OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. AS SUCH, SNEAKER WAVES AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, BREAKING
WAVES CAN REACH UP TO 10 FEET ALONG SOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES AND BREAK POINTS (LIKE SANTA CRUZ, PACIFICA, AND PARTS OF
STINSON OR OCEAN BEACH). SNEAKER WAVES CAN HAVE 20+ MINUTES IN
BETWEEN THE LARGER SETS (BREAKING WAVES) WITH SIGNIFICANT "FLAT/CALM
LOOKING" TIMES BETWEEN THEM. THIS CAN POTENTIALLY CATCH BEACHGOERS
BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE COLD
TURBULENT OCEAN; HENCE THE NAME "SNEAKER". RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM
NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY
FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE
NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN! THE BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
RGASS
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-
10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...NAVARRETE
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