053
FXUS66 KMTR 300820
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
120 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 119 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2026
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE HEATRISK FOR
OUR INTERIOR LOCATIONS
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTH AND EAST
BAY, DIABLO AND SANTA LUCIA RANGES THIS WEEK
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS AT THE PACIFIC COAST WITH AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1246 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THAT WENT "POOF" EARLIER IN THE EVENING
ARE SLOWLY REFORMING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST PER SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT. THE N-S GRADIENT FROM SFO-ACV EASED, WHICH IS ALSO
ASSISTING WITH THE BUILDING STRATUS. THAT BEING SAID, EXPECT SOME
STRATUS COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND LOCALLY INLAND,
ESPECIALLY SALINAS VALLEY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE GONE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT INTERIOR WARM UP WILL BE IN FULLY SWING
TODAY. WHILE WEDNESDAY FEATURES A FEW SPOTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S (PINNACLES HIT 100) THOSE READINGS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD. WHY THE INTERIOR HEAT? THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
THAT OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO THE DESERT SW HAS BEEN BUILDING WESTWARD
FOR A FEW DAYS NOW AND TODAY IT WILL BE MORE IMPACTFUL FOR OUR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WHAT ABOUT THE COAST? STILL NO CHANGE THERE.
WE'LL SEE SOME WARMER CONDITIONS, AM CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.
SPEAKING OF ONSHORE FLOW, SFO-SAC WILL LIKELY ECLIPSE 3MB AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH FOR INLAND
VALLEYS, GAPS, PASSES.
FOR TONIGHT, SOME PATCHY STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP, BUT
GIVEN THE ROBUST BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE
MORE COMPRESSED.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1246 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2026
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS
OVERALL FORECAST IDEAS REMAIN VALID FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR
THE HIGHLIGHTS - BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE INLAND
WARMUP. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST WITH INTERIOR CENTRAL
COAST MAKING A RUN AT 110. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS. INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK WITH A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF MAJOR.
SHALLOW COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE COAST FROM SEEING
THE REAL HEAT, BUT TEMPERATURES STILL WARM A FEW DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF WARM
850MB AIR.
NOW FOR WHAT WE'RE WATCHING CLOSELY. FOR A FEW DAYS NOW THE ECMWF
EFI HAS BEEN SHOWING REALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THE PROJECT N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE IN THE 7 TO 9 MB RANGE (99TH PERCENTILE), WHICH IS VERY
STRONG. HI- RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING STORM FORCE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
DEVELOPING NORTH OF POINT REYES.
AS NOTED BY THE DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY, THERE ARE A FEW BURSTS OF
OFFSHORE FLOW. A MORE NOTABLE ONE IS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE N BAY INTO SF BAY. OBVIOUS FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS WITH
WARMING AND DRYING, BUT TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST HAVE A HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL IF THIS PANS OUT FOR MONDAY.
FINALLY, FIRE WEATHER AND BEACHES. SEE SECTIONS BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. IF YOU'RE RECREATING IN THE HEAT THIS WEEKEND BE THE "ONE
LESS SPARK ONE LESS FIRE". ADDITIONALLY, IF YOU'RE SEEKING RELIEF
FROM INLAND HEAT BY HEADING TO THE BEACH PLEASE NEVER TURN YOUR
BACK TO THE OCEAN. WE STILL HAVE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 955 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2026
AS NOTED ABOVE, THE ACV-SFO PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS AT -5.5MB WHICH
ABSOLUTELY DECIMATED THE STRATUS ALONG OUR COAST. A FEW SPOTS ARE
HOLDING ON TO IT, BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING. NEAR
TERM HI-RES MODELS CAUGHT ON TO THIS PATTERN SHIFT, WHICH HAS MADE
TONIGHT'S FORECAST TRICKY. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRATUS IS
AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND THE SALINAS VALLEY, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN AT KHAF AND THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
TERMINALS. TRENDED THE TIMING BACK FOR ALL SITES, BUT THAT MAY NEED
TO BE COMPLETELY TAKEN OUT IF IT DOESN'T MATERIALIZE. IF CLOUDS DO
FORM, EXPECT THEM TO BE SHORT LIVED AND ERODE BY MID MORNING.
ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TOMORROW, BUT MAY NOT BE AS BREEZY AS THE PAST
TWO DAYS.
VICINITY OF SFO...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE SFO FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. SOME MODELS HINT AT STRATUS TRYING TO MAKE A RETURN BETWEEN
9-11Z WHILE OTHER PUSH IT CLOSER TO DAYBREAK, LEADING TO ONLY A FEW
HOURS OF REDUCED CIGS. WAS RATHER HESITANT TO COMPLETELY PULL
STRATUS OUT OF SFO SO HINTED AT IT WITH SOME SCT GROUPS IN A TEMPO,
BUT THAT COULD EASILY BE REMOVED IF WE DON'T SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE
ACV-SFO PRESSURE GRADIENT. ONCE WE GET PAST THE CLOUD CONUNDRUM, WE
MOVE ON TO BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHICH BEGIN GRADUALLY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS
RETURNING AROUND THE TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED, WITH CLEARING OCCURING BY
MID MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, BUT THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY'S
WINDS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES WITH NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE
COASTAL JET REGIONS SOUTH OF POINT ARENA AND SOUTH OF POINT SUR.
ADDITIONALLY, GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND, PERHAPS MAKING INTO THE WESTERN
MOST PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. TROPICAL ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LONG PERIOD SWELL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2026
THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO POOR AT LOCATIONS AT
OR ABOVE 2,000 FEET WITH VALUES BETWEEN 35 TO 45 PERCENT, WITH
SOME FAVORED LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO EVEN REACH 30 PERCENT. THIS
WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE ACROSS THE MAYACAMAS, HIGHEST PEAKS OF
THE EAST BAY HILLS, THE DIABLO RANGE, SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS, SANTA
LUCIA AND GABILAN RANGES. NOCTURNAL DRYING (RAPID DECREASE IN RH
THROUGH THE PRE- DAWN HOURS) MAY ALSO TRANSPIRE WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE BURN PERIOD OR TIME IN WHICH FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY REMAIN
ACTIVE. AFTERNOON RH WILL REMAIN CRITICALLY DRY WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 15 AND 30 PERCENT, WITH FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST POTENTIALLY SEEING MIN RH NEAR 10 PERCENT.
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS (ERC) ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE THE
95TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST. INDIVIDUALS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE ADVISED TO AVOID ACTIVITIES THAT MAY SPARK A
FIRE. FIRE CREWS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
EXECUTING ANY PRESCRIBED BURNS, ESPECIALLY WHERE FUELS,
TOPOGRAPHY, AND WEATHER ALIGN.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 225 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2026
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 15-17 SECONDS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR COASTLINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BRINGING HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIPS CURRENTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONDITIONS, WITH BREAKING WAVES UP TO 10 FEET
ALONG SOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES AND BREAK POINTS,
SUCH AS SANTA CRUZ, PACIFICA, AND PARTS OF STINSON OR OCEAN BEACH.
THIS CAN BE PARTICULARLY SURPRISING WHEN WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE
SUDDENLY AFTER A PERIOD OF SEEMINGLY TRANQUIL WAVE ACTION. IN
FACT, SNEAKER WAVES CAN HAVE 20+ MINUTES IN BETWEEN THE LARGER
SETS (BREAKING WAVES) WITH SIGNIFICANT "FLAT/CALM LOOKING" TIMES
BETWEEN THEM. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD, SNEAKER WAVES ARE POWERFUL
AND CAN CATCH BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE, RESULTING IN PEOPLE AND PETS
BEING SWEPT INTO THE COLD, TURBULENT OCEAN. RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL EVEN THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE.
CHECK MARINE CONDITIONS BEFORE YOU HEAD OUT! SWIM NEAR A
LIFEGUARD, IF POSSIBLE. MAINTAIN A SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE WATER,
AND STAY AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER
WATERSIDE INFRASTRUCTURE. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN AND IF
YOU HAVE SMALL CHILDREN OR PETS AT THE BEACH, PLEASE KEEP AN EYE
ON THEM. HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR MRY BAY-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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