823
FXUS66 KMTR 011856
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1156 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1251 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATE
HEATRISK IN THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTH AND
EAST BAYS, AND THE DIABLO AND SANTA LUCIA RANGES THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST WITH AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
SATURDAY
- STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP OVER COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
POINT REYES THIS WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 928 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2026
STRATUS CLOUDS LINGER ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF POINT REYES, AND
ESPECIALLY PILLAR POINT SOUTHWARDS TO POINT SUR, WITH THE STRATUS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. CONTINUING TO
MONITOR THE WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WHICH REMAINS OFFSHORE AND APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH SHOULD HELP MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYERS
AND INCREASE THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT, LEADING TO A
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DIALH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HRS MAKES. LAST NIGHT WE WERE MONITORING HEAT
SIGNATURES FROM THE WOODSIDE INCIDENT AND A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS
ON THE SATELLITE. TONIGHT NO HEAT SIGNATURES AND STRATUS CAME BACK
WITH SOLID COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCALLY INLAND.
NEAR-TERM HI-RES MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
STRATUS PATTERN. THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED OVERNIGHT TO NEAR
800-1000 FEET. EXPECT STRATUS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING THEN FADE
PRETTY QUICK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRY IN NATURE, BUT HELP MIX OUT THE MARINE
LAYER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A RAPID INCREASE IN N-S GRADIENT. THE
BIGGER IMPACT TO TODAY WEATHER WISE WILL BE THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY
THE HEAT ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR. REGIONS THAT ARE BEING IMPACTED
BY THE MARINE LAYER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FULLY TAPPING INTO THE
850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20C RANGE. THAT WOULD PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
100 AGAIN WITH THE HOTSPOTS GOING FOR 110. WIDESPREAD HEATRISK OF
MODERATE WITH SOME MAJOR ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST. SIMPLY
PUT, IF YOU'RE DOING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AWAY FROM THE COAST TODAY
BE MINDFUL AND TAKE SOME HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. IF YOU'RE
SEEKING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND WANT THE NATURAL AC AT THE COAST
YOU'LL GET IT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 80S. STILL ENERGETIC SURF
ZONE SO USE CAUTION AT THE BEACHES. BEACHES SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFO.
BY THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NORTHERN WATERS, BUT WASHOUT. THE FADING FRONT WILL HELP TO
ESTABLISH A RAPIDLY INCREASING N-S GRADIENT FROM SFO-ACV.
PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS PUT THE GRADIENT NEAR -9MB, BUT TONIGHT'S
MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE EASED JUST UNDER -8MB. DESPITE THE DROP, THE
INCREASING GRADIENT WILL MIX OUT THE STRATUS AND RAMP UP THE WIND.
HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME DANGEROUS STORM FORCE GUSTS
NORTH OF PT REYES. THANKFULLY THE STRONG WINDS STAY MOSTLY
PARALLEL TO THE COAST. AIDING IN LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO
COME FROM A WEAK BURST OF OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE N BAY AND CENTRAL
COAST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
SUBTLE COOLING EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THANKS TO A
FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STILL EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ONSHORE FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BURST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT STRONG
ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADV, BUT DEFINITELY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2026
STRATUS IS MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE REMAINING TERMINALS, GIVING WAY
FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. ONSHORE
WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS COMPRESSED TO AROUND 1000 FEET THIS TAF
PERIOD, THEREFORE LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW EXPANSIVE IT WILL BECOME
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SJC AND LVK TO REMAIN VFR. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS TO DEVELOP IFR CEILINGS AFTER
SUNSET AS WELL. ELSEWHERE IS KIND OF A TOSS-UP WITH MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE (LAMP, HREF, REFS, & NBM) GIVING ~45-50% PROBABILITIES OR
LESS, WITH THE NBM AND LAMP BEING THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. AS A RESULT,
SCT007-010 DECKS WERE THROWN IN. IF THE STRATUS EXPANDS FURTHER
INLAND, BKN-OVC CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND THE SPECIFIED
TIMES OF THE SCT CLOUD DECKS.
VICINITY OF SFO...MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZES INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT AT SFO TODAY,
THOUGH SUSTAINED NW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 15-18 KT AND EASE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. LOW CONFIDENCE ON IFR CEILINGS AT SFO AND OAK TONIGHT.
REMAINED MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS TAF PERIOD AND HINTED AT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR IFR RATHER THAN LOCKING IT IN. IF CEILINGS DO
DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THAN LAST NIGHT AROUND 10-12Z
SUNDAY AND SCATTER OUT BY 16-18Z TOMORROW.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
TYPICAL DIURNAL ONSHORE BREEZE PATTERN. IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 03-06Z, THOUGH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT
TIMING. COASTAL DRIZZLE/FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND CEILINGS MAY INTERMITTENTLY DROP TO LIFR (OVC003-004).
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY 18Z TOMORROW.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WIDESPREAD NORTH-NORTHWEST STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE BREEZES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THE BIG SUR COAST WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL STORM FORCE GUSTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
WIND DRIVEN SEAS, AROUND 10-15 FEET, CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY INTO
TOMORROW AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN WATERS
WILL SEE THE HIGHER END OF WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 452 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECASTED DRY CONDITIONS. DAYTIME HUMIDITY RETENTION REMAINS
POOR ACROSS THE INTERIOR (25-30%) WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 10S ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST, EAST BAY
HILLS/VALLEYS, AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL COAST MAY SEE DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY
REMAINS POOR AT LOCATIONS ABOVE 2,000 FEET WITH VALUES BETWEEN 25
TO 40% EXPECTED WITH SOME FAVORED LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH
EVEN 25%. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE ACROSS THE MAYACAMAS,
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE EAST BAY HILLS, THE DIABLO RANGE, THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS, THE SANTA LUCIA AND GABILAN RANGES. NOCTURNAL
DRYING (RAPID DECREASE IN RH THROUGH THE PRE- DAWN HOURS) MAY ALSO
TRANSPIRE WHICH WILL INCREASE THE BURN PERIOD OR TIME IN WHICH
FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY REMAIN ACTIVE. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS (ERC)
ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE THE 97TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST AND MID COAST TO MENDOCINO (NORTH BAY)
ZONE. ERC VALUES ARE RAPIDLY CLIMBING ACROSS THE DIABLO-SANTA
CRUZ ZONE (DIABLO MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS) WITH VALUES
APPROACHING THE 97TH PERCENTILE BY NEXT WEEK. DIURNALLY BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAIN GAPS AND
PASSES, AND ALONG THE RIDGELINES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH
NEAR CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, INDIVIDUALS ACROSS THESE AREAS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID
ACTIVITIES THAT MAY SPARK A FIRE. FIRE CREWS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
EXTRA CAUTION WHEN EXECUTING ANY PRESCRIBED BURNS, ESPECIALLY
WHERE FUELS, TOPOGRAPHY, AND WEATHER ALIGN.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 229 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2026
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS TO THE
CENTRAL COAST AND THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
WEAKEN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS TO DROP BELOW BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT CRITERIA. DIMINISHING, LOW LONG PERIOD (1-2 FT
AT 13 TO 14 SECONDS) SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT, WITH
BREAKING WAVES UP TO 10 FEET ALONG SOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES AND BREAK POINTS, SUCH AS SANTA CRUZ, PACIFICA, AND PARTS
OF STINSON OR OCEAN BEACH. THIS CAN BE PARTICULARLY SURPRISING
WHEN WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE SUDDENLY AFTER A PERIOD OF SEEMINGLY
TRANQUIL WAVE ACTION. IN FACT, SNEAKER WAVES CAN HAVE 20+ MINUTES
IN BETWEEN THE LARGER SETS (BREAKING WAVES) WITH SIGNIFICANT
"FLAT/CALM LOOKING" TIMES BETWEEN THEM. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD,
SNEAKER WAVES ARE POWERFUL AND CAN CATCH BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE,
RESULTING IN PEOPLE AND PETS BEING SWEPT INTO THE COLD, TURBULENT
OCEAN. RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL EVEN THE STRONGEST
SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. CHECK MARINE CONDITIONS BEFORE YOU HEAD
OUT! SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD, IF POSSIBLE. MAINTAIN A SAFE DISTANCE
FROM THE WATER, AND STAY AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE
ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE INFRASTRUCTURE. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO
THE OCEAN AND IF YOU HAVE SMALL CHILDREN OR PETS AT THE BEACH,
PLEASE KEEP AN EYE ON THEM.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...NAVARRETE
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