173
FXUS66 KMTR 040848
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
148 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 148 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- MODERATE HEATRISK IN THE INTERIOR TODAY, BECOMING PATCHY MIDWEEK
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTH AND EAST
BAYS, AND THE DIABLO AND SANTA LUCIA RANGES THROUGH THE WEEK
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 148 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS THAT ARRIVED EARLIER ON MONDAY, HAS
ALLOWED FOR STRATUS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING. NEARLY
ALL OF OUR COASTLINE HAS LOW CLOUDS ALONG IT, WITH THE STRATUS
PENETRATING INLAND. THE MONTEREY BAY ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
SALINAS VALLEY HAS FILLED IN, IS SLOWLY CREEPING INTO BAY AREA.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO ABOUT 800-1000FT, WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND AREAS IN OR UNDER THE
MARINE LAYER REASONABLE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN RETREATING TO THE COAST
BY MID TO LATE MORNING, LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN TERMS OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY TAKE HOLD OF THE FORECAST. 850MB TEMPERATURES TODAY, LOOK TO
TO BE BETWEEN 24-29C, WARMEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR AREAS INFLUENCED BY
THE MARINE LAYER, WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN HOT. PATCHY MODERATE
HEATRISK EXISTS INTERIOR NORTH BAY AND INTERIOR MONTEREY, WITH AREAS
TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK FOR INTERIOR EAST AND SOUTH BAYS.
OPTED TO HOLD OFF AN ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TONIGHT UNTIL WE GET A BETTER VISUAL ON THE MARINE LAYER EXPANSION
SINCE THAT COULD PUT INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT RISK.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 148 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THEN HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAY DECREASE A MORE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT IT
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE MARINE LAYER. INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL STILL
BE WARM, BUT LIKELY HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S, PERHAPS CRACKING
100 IN A FEW SPOTS. WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER STARTS TO RETURN ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. LOOKING AT MODELS, 850MB TEMPS
DON'T REALLY DEVIATE TOO MUCH. WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT THAT AIRMASS
BEING WARM, AROUND 27-30C, DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WOULD BE MILD, ESPECIALLY IN THE THERMAL BELTS/MOUNTAINS. AND DAY
TIME HIGHS WOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S AND LOW 100S. THE HEATRISK
PROJECTION LOOKS TO HAVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK FOR INTERIOR
SLOTS, WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 941 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE INTERIOR
SOUTH BAY TERMINALS, THEN IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING AROUND 10Z FOR THE
NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA TERMINALS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS RETURNED
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED TO THE MONTEREY BAY SITES AND WILL PERSIST
UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
THE EARLIER ONSET ACROSS MONTEREY BAY SITES, THERE'S A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT STRATUS RETURNS CLOSER TO 08Z THAN 10Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CEILINGS PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS RETURNED A LITTLE
SOONER THAN EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THEY LIFT WITH A SUNSET RETURN TUESDAY EVENING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 941 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES HAVE SET IN ACROSS OUR OUTER WATERS WITH
BREEZIER SOUTH WINDS AT TIMES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCED
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO EASE AND BECOME 4-8FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND BECOME MODERATE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING SEAS
RESPONDING BY THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 420 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND POTENTIALLY A RETURN OF NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR (EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY,
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECASTED DRY
CONDITIONS. DAYTIME HUMIDITY RETENTION REMAINS POOR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR (20-30%) WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 10S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST, EAST BAY HILLS/VALLEYS, AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST MAY SEE
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY, THEN
AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERY REMAINS POOR AT LOCATIONS ABOVE 2,000 FEET WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 25 TO 40% EXPECTED WITH SOME FAVORED LOCATIONS STRUGGLING
TO REACH EVEN 25%. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE ACROSS THE
MAYACAMAS, HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE EAST BAY HILLS, THE DIABLO RANGE,
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS, THE SANTA LUCIA AND GABILAN RANGES.
NOCTURNAL DRYING (RAPID DECREASE IN RH THROUGH THE PRE- DAWN
HOURS) MAY ALSO TRANSPIRE WHICH WILL INCREASE THE BURN PERIOD OR
TIME IN WHICH FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY REMAIN ACTIVE. ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE THE THE
PERCENTILE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST, MID COAST TO
MENDOCINO (NORTH BAY), AND DIABLO- SANTA CRUZ (DIABLO MOUNTAINS
AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS) ZONES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DIURNALLY BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST,
MOUNTAIN GAPS AND PASSES, AND ALONG THE RIDGELINES EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH NEAR CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, INDIVIDUALS ACROSS THESE AREAS ARE
ADVISED TO AVOID ACTIVITIES THAT MAY SPARK A FIRE. FIRE CREWS ARE
URGED TO EXERCISE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN EXECUTING ANY PRESCRIBED
BURNS, ESPECIALLY WHERE FUELS, TOPOGRAPHY, AND WEATHER ALIGN.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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