875
FXUS66 KMTR 220229
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
727 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 308 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE 1000FT PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 308 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
THE FORECAST IS ON REPEAT TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD AND THE STRATUS A BIT MORE DISPERSED ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
MARINE LAYER MAKING A RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE AROUND 1000-1500FT ACROSS
OUR SERVICE AREA, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT AND MORNING OF
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
CLEAR BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WITH STRATUS CLEARING POTENTIALLY A BIT
EARLIER AND LESS HIGH CLOUDS, HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY,
PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 308 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS SIMILAR, AS WE REMAIN CAUGHT IN THE
QUASI-ZONAL TO WEAK TROUGHING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND THEN MODERATE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW RIDGING TRYING TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO WARMING FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME CAVEATS TO WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN WILL BE THE
PACIFIC. THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER SHOWS THREE POTENTIAL DISTURBANCES WELL SOUTH OF BAJA. COULD
INFLUENCE HOW THE HIGH BEHAVES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 2026
IT'S VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG /IFR/ ALONG
SAN MATEO COUNTY AND AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG /IFR/ ALONG
MONTEREY COUNTY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, INCLUDING WILDFIRE SMOKE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST, ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF COOLER NEAR SURFACE AIR WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A
RETURN OF STRATUS, FOG /IFR-LIFR/ AND POSSIBLY A FEW PATCHES OF
DRIZZLE.
VICINITY OF SFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES
THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z THIS EVENING DUE TO AN EARLIER EROSION OF
STRATUS, BUT ALSO INCLUDING A HIGHER AMOUNT OF WATER VAPOR IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS SLOWING RADIATIVE COOLING TONIGHT. NAM MODEL
OUTPUT DOES SHOW NEAR SURFACE COOLER AIR ARRIVING OVERNIGHT, THIS
WILL SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS /MVFR/ INCLUDING POSSIBLY IFR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING; NOT ADVERTISED IN THE 00Z TAF, HOWEVER MAY
INCLUDE IFR IN 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS
OTHERWISE DECREASING WIND TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. WESTERLY WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 28 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO MID SATURDAY EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SOME EROSION OF STRATUS IS TAKING PLACE
TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY HOWEVER OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE
COOLING OF AIR PARCELS UPON ARRIVAL VICINITY KMRY IS OCCURRING
SUPPORTING A STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ CEILING. STRATUS /IFR/ IS FORECAST
TO REACH KSNS DURING THE EVENING AS WELL. WILDFIRE SMOKE SO FAR IS
ALOFT. A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR-VFR BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. LOCALLY STRONG BREEZES WITH
OCCASIONAL NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL JET
REGIONS OF POINT SUR AND POINT REYES. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY-SF
BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60
NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...NAVARRETE
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