604
FXUS66 KMTR 222005
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
105 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 103 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MARINE
LAYER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ABOVE 1000 FEET
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 103 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BORDER OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PRACTICALLY, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. RIDGING
INFLUENCE IS MORE PRONOUNCED TODAY WITH THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSED
TO AROUND 1000 FEET AND LESS EXTENSIVE MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE.
STRATUS COVER HAS DISSIPATED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SAN FRANCISCO/SAN
MATEO COASTLINE WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH
INTERIOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S. CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER/IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS WILL PEAK
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALONG THE
COAST AND SF BAY SHORELINE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST REMAINS TOASTY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S EXPECTED ACROSS FAR INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY.
RIDGING EFFECTS REMAIN PRONOUNCED HEADING INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
MARINE LAYER REMAINING COMPRESSED TO AROUND 1000 FEET. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND SF BAY
SHORELINE. GIVEN THE COMPRESSED NATURE OF THE MARINE LAYER, STRATUS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT EARLY AGAIN, LIKELY BY 10/11AM. SUNDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SATURDAY'S WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, 60S TO 70S ALONG THE COAST AND SF
BAY SHORELINE, AND IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER
THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT, ALONG THE COAST, AND ACROSS FAVORED MOUNTAIN
GAPS/PASSES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 103 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS A RINSE AND REPEAT OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND TROUGHING FIGHTING OVER OUR AREA. TROUGHING
BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENING TO AROUND 1000-1500 FT. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO THE REGION AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES COOL
BY ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES (LOW 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR) WHILE
COASTAL TEMPERATURES STAY RELATIVELY STABLE. MID TO LATE WEEK,
RIDGING AGAIN BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
SLIGHTLY AND THE MARINE LAYER/STRATUS COVERAGE COMPRESSING. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ABOVE THE
MARINE LAYER AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITHIN IT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. DIURNALLY BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE COAST, HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND ACROSS
MOUNTAIN GAPS/PASSES. LOOKING FARTHER OUT, THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW A NUMBER OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THESE SYSTEMS AS THEY
DEVELOP TO SEE HOW THEY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IF
ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND TOWARDS THE WEST COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNALLY INFLUENCED AND MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW. THE OAK SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING MEASURED THE MARINE
LAYER AT A DEPTH OF 1500 FEET WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS. HOWEVER, DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, STRATUS HAS
BEEN PATCHY THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID, AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CREEP IN WHICH WILL
SLIGHTLY COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND SLIGHT COMPRESSION WILL LIMIT STRATUS EXPANSION INTO
THE INTERIOR EAST AND SOUTH BAY VALLEY TERMINALS. AT SITES WHERE
STRATUS DEVELOPS, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR TO MVFR. LOW
TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT ARRIVAL OF STRATUS, THOUGH
GENERALLY EXPECT A LATER ONSET. NORTH BAY TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE A
WEAK, SHORT-LIVED OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL FURTHER DELAY
IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND SHORTEN ITS DURATION. AS A RESULT, LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE MARINE LAYER WILL REACH APC.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS EASE
AROUND SUNSET. THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
REACH SFO OVERNIGHT, BUT IT IS A MATTER OF WHEN. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
ON THE EXACT TIMING AS CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST (09-12Z SUNDAY). STRATUS SHOULD HAVE A SIMILAR CLEARING
TIME OF 17-18Z SUNDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STRATUS MAY BE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. THE
OFFSHORE STRATUS FEED CONTINUES TO LOOK MESSY, THEREFORE A LATER
STRATUS ARRIVAL IS FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS. NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS, PARTICULARLY NEAR POINT SUR AND POINT REYES.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFTS PERSIST TODAY FOR THE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY-SF
BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...NAVARRETE
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