175
FXUS66 KMTR 230403
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
903 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 103 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MARINE
LAYER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ABOVE 1000 FEET
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 901 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST AT PRESENT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
CHIEFLY OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DIALH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 103 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BORDER OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PRACTICALLY, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. RIDGING
INFLUENCE IS MORE PRONOUNCED TODAY WITH THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSED
TO AROUND 1000 FEET AND LESS EXTENSIVE MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE.
STRATUS COVER HAS DISSIPATED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SAN FRANCISCO/SAN
MATEO COASTLINE WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH
INTERIOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S. CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER/IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS WILL PEAK
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALONG THE
COAST AND SF BAY SHORELINE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST REMAINS TOASTY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S EXPECTED ACROSS FAR INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY.
RIDGING EFFECTS REMAIN PRONOUNCED HEADING INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
MARINE LAYER REMAINING COMPRESSED TO AROUND 1000 FEET. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND SF BAY
SHORELINE. GIVEN THE COMPRESSED NATURE OF THE MARINE LAYER, STRATUS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT EARLY AGAIN, LIKELY BY 10/11AM. SUNDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SATURDAY'S WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, 60S TO 70S ALONG THE COAST AND SF
BAY SHORELINE, AND IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER
THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT, ALONG THE COAST, AND ACROSS FAVORED MOUNTAIN
GAPS/PASSES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 103 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS A RINSE AND REPEAT OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND TROUGHING FIGHTING OVER OUR AREA. TROUGHING
BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENING TO AROUND 1000-1500 FT. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO THE REGION AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES COOL
BY ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES (LOW 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR) WHILE
COASTAL TEMPERATURES STAY RELATIVELY STABLE. MID TO LATE WEEK,
RIDGING AGAIN BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
SLIGHTLY AND THE MARINE LAYER/STRATUS COVERAGE COMPRESSING. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ABOVE THE
MARINE LAYER AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITHIN IT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. DIURNALLY BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE COAST, HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND ACROSS
MOUNTAIN GAPS/PASSES. LOOKING FARTHER OUT, THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW A NUMBER OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THESE SYSTEMS AS THEY
DEVELOP TO SEE HOW THEY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IF
ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND TOWARDS THE WEST COAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 426 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
IT'S VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHES OF COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG /IFR/ ALONG
SAN MATEO COUNTY AND MONTEREY COUNTY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, INCLUDING
WILDFIRE SMOKE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST, ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG
/IFR-LIFR/ REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR PREVAILS UNTIL STRATUS /IFR/ DEVELOPS 12Z
SUNDAY. VFR RETURNS 18Z SUNDAY. WEST WIND 20 TO 30 KNOTS UNTIL MID
EVENING THEN DECREASING TO 8 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
WEST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MID
SUNDAY EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR UNTIL STRATUS /IFR-LIFR/ REDEVELOPS
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR-VFR
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
15 KNOTS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 901 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MARINE CONDITIONS
REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MINOR
IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE DUE TO SMOKE
FROM THE TIMBER FIRE GETTING TRAPPED SOUTH OF POINT SUR.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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