094
FXUS66 KMTR 250012
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
512 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2026
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES PERSIST
WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER
- WARM, SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ABOVE 1000 FEET
- PATTERN CHANGE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LOW POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 128 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY UNCHANGED AS WE REMAIN ON THE
BORDER OF TROUGHING TO THE NORTH AND RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. TODAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS INTERIOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS INTERIOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. COASTAL LOCATIONS REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER, APPROX. 1000 FEET, WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. WE ARE EXPECTING
ANOTHER EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH THE
MARINE LAYER REMAINING BETWEEN 1000-1200 FEET. RIDGING WILL BECOME
MORE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING BY 2-5 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. PRACTICALLY, THIS IS THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE INTERIOR BEING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TO MID
TO UPPER 80S WHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. NO REAL CHANGES TO THE COASTAL TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY, INTERIOR TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONAL
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ARE ONLY RUNNING 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COASTAL LOCATIONS AND AREAS
ALONG THE SF BAY SHORELINE WILL BE SEASONAL TO BELOW NORMAL. WITH
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST,
WE WILL NOT BE CLOSE TO ANY RECORD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. DIURNALLY
BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, HIGHER TERRAIN, AND
MOUNTAIN GAPS/PASSES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 128 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
RIDGING PREVAILS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO LOW 90S PREVAILING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST. COASTAL AREAS EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT
WARM UP WITH MORE LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 70S BUT, OVERALL, STAY
COOLER COMPARED TO INTERIOR LOCATIONS. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE
PATTERN SWITCHES UP ON US. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE WESTERN US AND MOVE INLAND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INLAND WE CAN EXPECT IT TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZIER WINDS TO THE REGION. INTERIOR HIGHS COOL INTO THE 80S,
ACROSS BOTH THE HIGHER AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BEFORE GRADUALLY
COOLING FROM THE 80S INTO THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. COASTAL
AND SF BAY SHORELINE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO
POTENTIALLY THE LOW 70S. EVEN THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST GETS IN ON
THE COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BY MONDAY. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH TIGHTENS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. RIGHT NOW, THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE
BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT, THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE ALTAMONT PASS.
FORTUNATELY, THE INCOMING TROUGH SHOULD HELP THE MARINE LAYER TO
DEEPEN AND RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY
AREA. THAT BEING SAID, IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE
SOME OFFSHORE FLOW IF THIS TROUGH TAKES A MORE INSIDE SLIDER TYPE
PATH.
LASTLY, THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
TROPICAL ACTIVITY. AS OF THIS MORNING'S NHC UPDATE, TROPICAL STORM
ISELLE AND FOUR OTHER AREAS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WERE
ALL LOCATED OFF OF WESTERN MEXICO. WHILE ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWEST, STAYING WELL OUT TO SEA, WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE
IN LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER IN
TIME. BEACHGOERS THIS WEEKEND WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARDS AS THE
TROUGH ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. CURRENTLY, MODELS SHOW MINIMAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING INTO OUR CWA BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS WE STILL HAVE FOUR POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEMS BREWING
TO OUR SOUTH OFF OF MEXICO. THE NBM HIGHLIGHTS A NON-ZERO (< 5%)
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
WE ARE ALSO MONITORING THIS CLOSELY GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES SURROUNDING
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM PDT MON AUG 24 2026
A BLANKET OF STRATUS HAS RETREATED TO THE COASTLINE RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS, EXCEPT FOR HAF. HAF MAY BRIEFLY
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL MAINLY REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A MORE PROMINENT INLAND PUSH OF STRATUS TONIGHT. THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1200 FEET OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO REACH MOST TERMINALS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL SITES (HAF, MRY, AND SNS) TO DEVELOP IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS AS EARLY AS SUNSET. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT
ARRIVAL OF IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE, THOUGH THEY MAY ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS 04-06Z TUESDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. BORDERLINE MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE PUSH,
IT JUST BECOMES A MATTER OF WHEN. HIGH CONFIDENCE OAK WILL DEVELOP
CEILINGS BEFORE SFO, THOUGH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE ARRIVAL AS THEY
MAY ROLL IN A FEW HOURS LATER THAN SPECIFIED.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AN EARLY
RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING
TO LIFR BY LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT THAT WILL DEPEND
HOW MUCH THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND IF FOG IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE WINDS
EASE OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2026
THE STRATUS OFFSHORE LOOKS MUCH HEALTHIER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND
THE CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER IN WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR CEILINGS
IMPACTS TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...WITH THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 1,000 FEET DEEP,
THE STRATUS IS SPILLING THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE, BUT ISN'T
CROSSING FROM THE PENINSULA SIDE YET. DESPITE DODGING THE
CEILINGS LAST NIGHT, THE CHANCES ARE MUCH BETTER FOR MVRF OR IFR
IMPACTS TONIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CEILINGS ARE CLOSING IN ON MRY AND
SHOULD BE SETTLED IN FOR THE NIGH NO LATER THAN 02Z.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2026
GENTLE NORTHWEST BREEZES INCREASE TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. FRESH BREEZES INCREASE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE COASTAL
JET REGIONS OF POINT REYES AND POINT SUR. SMOKE MAY CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 2 MILES ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST DUE TO
THE TIMBER FIRE. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 15 TO 17
SECONDS APPROACHES OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...NAVARRETE
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