214
FXUS66 KMTR 300041
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
541 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- COOLING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1240 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS HAVE RETURN TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY OVER THE NORTH
BAY WITH THE LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS AN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
WITH CLEARING SKIES OFF OF THE NORTH BAY COAST THIS AFTERNOON, LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR A RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A PATCHWORK OF STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND MORESO INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS. FOR SUNDAY, EXPECTING MORE OF
THE SAME AS TROUGHING PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1240 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
A REINFORCING TROUGH DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS
A RESULT, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING
RAINFALL TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY LATE WEEK, THE NBM IS
SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH OFF OF
THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND POTENTIAL DRAGS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE
REDUCING SLANT RANGE AND SURFACE VISIBILITIES IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY
COUNTY. A WELL ESTABLISHED DEEP LAYERED MID-LATITUDE WIND FLOW
RETURNED LAST NIGHT AND TODAY WHICH THOROUGHLY DRIED OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE AT AND ABOVE THE LOWER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
(TEMPERATURE INVERSION BASED AT 1600 FEET PER LATEST 00Z OAKLAND
UPPER AIR SOUNDING). THIS DRYING COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND
FULLY MIXED OUT EVEN LINGERING COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG. INDEPENDENT
OF THE 500 MB PATTERN, THERMAL RIDGING REMAINS BETWEEN 925 MB AND
700 MB TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW STRATUS AND FOG
RETURNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH IT'LL TAKE TIME FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. A DRY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION WILL RESULT IN RADIATIVE COOLING TONIGHT TO DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THIS AND ANY NEAR SURFACE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP
COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS LIKELY STAY VFR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR EXCEPT TEMPO STRATUS /IFR/ 11Z-15Z SUNDAY.
WEST WIND 16 TO 25 KNOTS UNTIL 05Z THIS EVENING, THEN WEST WIND 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WEST WIND 15 TO 22 KNOTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. IT'LL TAKE A WHILE FOR POST SUNSET
RADIATIVE COOLING COMBINING WITH GENTLE UPSLOPE COOLING TO RESULT
IN STRATUS AND FOG/MIST /IFR-LIFR/ REDEVELOPMENT. TEMPO STRATUS
AND FOG/MIST /LIFR/ FORECAST 09Z-14Z, PREVAILING LIFR UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. STRATUS, FOG/MIST MIX OUT TO VFR 17Z SUNDAY. WINDS
MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026
FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS
STEADILY DIMINISH TO GENTLE BY MONDAY. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL AROUND 17 TO 18 SECONDS PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. WIND DRIVEN
SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD TO ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
BACK TO MODERATE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...NAVARRETE
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