985
FXUS66 KMTR 301843
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1143 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY SUNDAY
- COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 918 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2026
STRATUS FINALLY FILLED IN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTLINE, MONTEREY BAY/SALINAS VALLEY REGION,
AND AROUND THE SAN FRANCISCO AND SAN PABLO BAYS. THESE LOW CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST TO RETREAT TO THE COAST AND POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THAT SAID, INLAND AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
RGASS
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1053 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
SATURDAY WAS A BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST AND WE'LL GET MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY. THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS FULLY EVAPORATED BY NOON AS A MUCH DIRER AIR MASS MOVED IN
FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z WEATHER BALLOON MEASURED THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT 0.58", WHICH IS AROUND THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WITH UNIMPEDED RADIATIVE COOLING, MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS
STARTING TO REFORM, WITH HALF MOON BAY RECORDING THE FIRST CLOUDS
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE
WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRATUS COME BACK BEFORE THE SUN RISES SUNDAY
MORNING. INLAND VALLEYS ARE MORE OF A TOSS-UP. THE MARINE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY 1,600' DEEP AND WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY CLEAR BY MIDDAY WITH A
MILD, BREEZY, AND CLEAR AFTERNOON.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS SHOULD BE MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE DEPTH WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 2,000' BY THEN, WITH LESS
CHANCE OF CLEARING ALONG THE COAST. AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
WEEKEND WITH A STRONGER ONSHORE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1053 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
AS THE TROUGHING PATTERN CONTINUES, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 6-10 C ON TUESDAY. THAT'S ABOUT AS LOW AS IT GETS
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MORE LIKE A NORMAL NOVEMBER DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH THE TYPICAL MARINE
LAYER STRATUS IN THE MORNING. THE TROUGHING PATTERN WILL DEEPEN AND
A CUT-OFF LOW WILL BRING SOME EARLY RAIN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATER THIS WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH BAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
SHOWS A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT SANTA ROSA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH A 10% CHANCE OF REACHING 1/2". THE PROBABILITY DROPS QUICKLY
FURTHER SOUTH OUTSIDE OF SOME MARINE LAYER DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST. THIS CUT-OFF LOW NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LINGER NEAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND. IF SO, THIS LOW PRESSURE
BREAKS UP THE NORMAL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO RECURVE TO THE
NORTH RATHER THAN BEING HELD IN THE TROPICAL LATITUDES. WHILE IT'S
TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THAT WILL HAPPEN, THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING
PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT MAY KEEP THE DOOR OPEN INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WIDESPREAD VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AS MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE. THE MARINE LAYER WAS ABOUT 200 FEET DEEPER
THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (1400 FT TO 1600 FT) AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT, RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS AT MOST
TERMINALS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER STRATUS WILL REACH THE INTERIOR
EAST AND SOUTH BAY VALLEY TERMINALS, THEREFORE THE TAF HINTS AT THE
POTENTIAL WITH SCT DECKS. COASTAL SITES DEVELOP LOW-END MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND SUNSET, MEANWHILE THE REST OF THE SITES DEVELOP MVFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. STRATUS SHOULD RECEDE TO THE COAST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT ARRIVAL OF
STRATUS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE WESTERLY
BREEZES. DECREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL 20 KT GUST. AS WINDS EASE
OVERNIGHT, MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT BOTH SFO AND OAK
WHICH THEN PERSIST UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING AS MODERATE WINDS
INCREASE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP RIGHT BEFORE SUNSET, THOUGH THEY MAY ARRIVE
AS LATE AS 9 PM PDT TONIGHT. STRATUS PERSISTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF COASTAL
DRIZZLE OCCURS, ANTICIPATE A REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY AROUND 4-6SM.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 918 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2026
NORTHWEST BREEZES REMAIN FRESH WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE
GUSTS TODAY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO GENTLE BREEZES BY MONDAY.
WIND DRIVEN ROUGH SEAS SUBSIDE TO MODERATE BY MONDAY INTO THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ALSO DECREASES TODAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...FLYNN
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...NAVARRETE
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