153
FXUS66 KMTR 222347
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
447 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
- COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1232 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH,
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 60S NEAR
THE COAST, UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AROUND THE BAYSHORE, AND MID 70S TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH NEAR THE COAST, IN THE
FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES, AND DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY.
AS THE MARINE LAYER GRADUALLY COMPRESSES TO AROUND 1,500 FEET
TONIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING LESS OF AN INLAND INTRUSION OF STRATUS. AS
SUCH, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST,
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AROUND THE BAYSHORE, AND MID 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE WARMEST INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
COAST LOOK TO WARM INTO LOW-TO-UPPER 90S. THIS WILL RESULT IN
POCKETS OF MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS A RESULT, DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE THE MARINE INFLUENCES.
TOMORROW NIGHT, LOOK FOR AGAIN LESS INLAND EXTENT OF STRATUS AND THE
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID 50S NEAR THE COAST TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER, THE WARMING AIR MASS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ONLY COOLING INTO THE 70S.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1232 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO WEDNESDAY ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY, A DEVELOPING TROUGH
OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL RETURN RESULTING IN A COOLING TREND AND
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER. THE COOLEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A REINFORCING TROUGH DEEPENS OFF OF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH TEMPERATURES UP TO 10-15 DEG F BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS AND
THE 500 MB HEIGHT CLUSTERS POINT TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 412 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOR MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE FOR KAPC AND KOAK IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES SOMEWHAT AND BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR KSFO WITH THE
MARINE LAYER GETTING COMPRESSED AND LESS ORGANIZED. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT KOAK DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO THE MID-MORNING WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT STEADY
FETCH OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH GOLDEN GATE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS HAVE SETTLED. NORMAL
DIURNAL TREND OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WITH VFR EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, MAYBE SOONER IF LESS ORGANIZED MARINE LAYER
MANIFESTS THIS FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE, VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
NORTHWEST MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES WITH STRONG GUSTS STEADILY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WHILE REMAINING
ELEVATED TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ROUGH NORTHWEST SEAS CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO MODERATE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
WITH BUILDING ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 434 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SOLID MARINE LAYER COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST AND SALINAS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDING AND PROFILERS PUT THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE
LAYER AROUND THE 2,000-2,500 FOOT RANGE. DEFINITELY SOME
COMPRESSION ON THE MARINE LAYER LEADING TO DRIZZLEFEST AROUND THE
AREA. SEEING SOME REDUCED VSBY TOO, WHICH MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CREWS DEPARTING ICP FOR TIMBER/PLASKETT.
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER MODERATE TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY
FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ABOVE 3,000 FEET.
OTHERWISE, STILL VALID FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND KICKING OFF
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND AREAS
OF MODERATE HEATRISK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
COMPRESS BELOW 1,000 FEET DURING THIS WARM-UP WITH NOCTURNAL
DRYING EXPECTED ABOVE IT.
MM
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO
PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...NAVARRETE
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