373
FXUS66 KMTR 250658
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1158 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 954 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
- COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1158 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
A COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE MIXING OUT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S TO LOWER 70S COASTSIDE TO THE MID
70S AND 80S INLAND. ADDITIONAL COOLING ARRIVES FOR SATURDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S/70 AT THE COAST, MOSTLY 70S INLAND EXCEPT
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1158 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A SIGNATURE OF A STRONG
NORTH HEMISPHERIC MERIDIONAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, ROBUST POLAR
JET STREAM AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WINDS, WIND SHEAR AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM(S) DEVELOPMENT. WITH BOTH JET STREAMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WORKING IN UNISON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
THIS GREATLY INCREASES THE CHANCE WE SEE REINFORCING DRIER MID-
LATITUDE WIND FLOW SUPPRESSING TROPICAL ACTIVITY FAR TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THE COOLER WEATHER LASTS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WE RETURN TO A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 500 MB RIDGING RETURNS
DURING THIS TIME WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY COASTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 850 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MONTEREY BAY SITES
DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO NEAR
SUNRISE, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA SITES
AROUND THE SAME TIME.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT AND
TIMING DUE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK MARINE LAYER THAT MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE COAST.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO NEAR SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH VFR EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING DUE TO THE WEAK
AND COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 850 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MONTEREY BAY SOUTH TO BIG SUR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY PRODUCING
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL BEGINS TO INCREASE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 450 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
MARINE LAYER IS PRETTY MUCH NON-EXISTENT OVERNIGHT. THAT LED MUCH
LESS RH RECOVERY ACROSS THE DISTRICT AT BOTH LOWER AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. NGFS GAVE US A HIT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AS THE TIMBER
FIRE HAD AN NORTHERN PERIMETER FLARE UP. EVEN FIREGUARD SHOWED THE
HEAT AS WELL. NOT COMPLETELY SURPRISED GIVEN TEMPS IN THE 70S AND
RH RECOVERY AROUND 30 PCT NEAR TIMBER. OTHERWISE, NOTES FOR TODAY
WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HOTTEST AND
DRIEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS. DO EXPECT AN UPTICK WITH
WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COOLER
AND WETTER FOR FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
MM
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-
PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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