314
FXUS66 KMTR 251148
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
448 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 954 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
- COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1158 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
A COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE MIXING OUT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S TO LOWER 70S COASTSIDE TO THE MID
70S AND 80S INLAND. ADDITIONAL COOLING ARRIVES FOR SATURDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S/70 AT THE COAST, MOSTLY 70S INLAND EXCEPT
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1158 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A SIGNATURE OF A STRONG
NORTH HEMISPHERIC MERIDIONAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, ROBUST POLAR
JET STREAM AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WINDS, WIND SHEAR AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM(S) DEVELOPMENT. WITH BOTH JET STREAMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WORKING IN UNISON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
THIS GREATLY INCREASES THE CHANCE WE SEE REINFORCING DRIER MID-
LATITUDE WIND FLOW SUPPRESSING TROPICAL ACTIVITY FAR TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THE COOLER WEATHER LASTS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WE RETURN TO A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 500 MB RIDGING RETURNS
DURING THIS TIME WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY COASTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
HYBRID MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING AS SOME CLOUDS FORMED AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. ACARS AND SOUNDING PUTS THE INVERSION NEAR 1000-1200
FEET. PRETTY SHALLOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH IT.
BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE HAF, INSIDE SF BAY, AND SALINAS VALLEY.
COULD SEE SOME SUNRISE CLOUDS ARRIVE FOR SJC AS THEY FILTER IN
FROM THE N. PUT A TEMPO FOR SJC THROUGH 15Z. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS INCREASE AND MIXING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. OVERALL CONF IS
MODERATE FOR THIS MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...LIFR IMPACTS THROUGH 17-18Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT POSS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LIFR FOR SNS DUE TO LOW FOG THROUGH 16Z.
MRY IS VFR BUT NEARBY CLOUDS HAVE A 30 PCT CHC OF IMPACTS AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
BREEZES INTO THE WEEKEND. NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MONTEREY BAY SOUTH TO BIG SUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY PRODUCING LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
BEGINS TO INCREASE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 430 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
TRANSITION DAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT AS A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. AS OF THIS WRITING THE FRONT IS JUST PUSHING THROUGH THE
N BAY AND WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PASSING FRONT WILL KICK OFF A COOLING AND
MOISTENING TREND, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE
IMPORTANTLY FOR A FIRE WEATHER STANDPOINT THE PASSING FRONT WILL
CAUSE AN UPTICK IN WINDS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT, BUT A WEAK
OFFSHORE PUSH DEVELOPS FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NOTHING TO BE
ALARMED OVER AS IT WILL BE WEAK AND MAINLY N AND E BAY HIGHER
TERRAIN.
MM
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10
NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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