206
FXUS66 KMTR 251733
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1033 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 954 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
- COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 853 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
SALINAS VALLEY, EXPECTED TO PARE BACK TO THE COASTAL REGIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA AND WILL COME
INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING BREEZIER
CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE AND HERALDING A COOLER AND MOISTER
WEEKEND. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DIALH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1158 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
A COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE MIXING OUT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S TO LOWER 70S COASTSIDE TO THE MID
70S AND 80S INLAND. ADDITIONAL COOLING ARRIVES FOR SATURDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S/70 AT THE COAST, MOSTLY 70S INLAND EXCEPT
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1158 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A SIGNATURE OF A STRONG
NORTH HEMISPHERIC MERIDIONAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, ROBUST POLAR
JET STREAM AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WINDS, WIND SHEAR AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM(S) DEVELOPMENT. WITH BOTH JET STREAMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WORKING IN UNISON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
THIS GREATLY INCREASES THE CHANCE WE SEE REINFORCING DRIER MID-
LATITUDE WIND FLOW SUPPRESSING TROPICAL ACTIVITY FAR TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THE COOLER WEATHER LASTS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WE RETURN TO A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 500 MB RIDGING RETURNS
DURING THIS TIME WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY COASTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
A MIX OF VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
REGIONWIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO EASE OVERNIGHT AND MORE SO INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE RETURN OF LOW CEILINGS
AND/OR FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE AT HAF, OAK, AND SNS. ANY
LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 18Z SATURDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 17Z WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER OAK. WINDS EASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. EXPECTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING AFTER SUNSET. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER SNS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER HAVE JUST SCT006 IN AT MRY
FROM 1100Z-1630Z SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 853 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
A PASSING DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
BREEZES INTO THE WEEKEND. NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MONTEREY BAY SOUTH TO BIG SUR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY PRODUCING LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL BEGINS TO INCREASE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 430 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
TRANSITION DAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT AS A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. AS OF THIS WRITING THE FRONT IS JUST PUSHING THROUGH THE
N BAY AND WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PASSING FRONT WILL KICK OFF A COOLING AND
MOISTENING TREND, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE
IMPORTANTLY FOR A FIRE WEATHER STANDPOINT THE PASSING FRONT WILL
CAUSE AN UPTICK IN WINDS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT, BUT A WEAK
OFFSHORE PUSH DEVELOPS FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NOTHING TO BE
ALARMED OVER AS IT WILL BE WEAK AND MAINLY N AND E BAY HIGHER
TERRAIN.
MM
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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