631
FXUS66 KMTR 252351
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
451 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1238 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
LINGERING STRATUS IS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE EAST BAY, THE SAN MATEO
COAST, THE SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND THE BIG SUR COAST, WHILE HIGH
CLOUDS FLOW OVER THE NORTH BAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSED
THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA THIS MORNING AND IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE CENTRAL COAST, BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AND STARTING A COOLING AND
MOISTENING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF MONTEREY COUNTY,
THE UPPER 60S TO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE BAYS, AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SOME WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY.
BY SATURDAY, A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, STRENGTHEN INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND MARCH INTO
THE STATE, CONTINUING THE COOLING TREND TOWARDS THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S INTO
THE LOWER 80S, WHILE THE COAST AND THE BAYS SEE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THE WARMEST SPOTS IN SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S ON
SATURDAY. NOCTURNAL DRYING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITHIN HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1238 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
RIDGING, OR AT THE VERY LEAST MORE ZONAL FLOW, WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AS THE CUT-OFF LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST,
CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RISE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE (UP TO 10
DEGREES) THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED IN THE
INLAND VALLEYS, THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S NEAR THE BAYS, AND
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. BEYOND THAT, FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY RISES AS ENSEMBLE MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS STARTS TO
DIVERGE ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 441 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. KOAK 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A WEAK MARINE
LAYER TOPPING OUT AT APPROXIMATELY 1000FT. EXPECTING VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
TERMINALS, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND FOG AT
KSNS AND KSTS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTY
ONSHORE FLOW EASING TO BREEZY AFTER SUNSET AND REMAINING VFR AND
BREEZY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND
FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY CLOSER TO SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND IF SO, THE
EXTENT AND TIMING, HOWEVER EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY MID/LATE
MORNING SATURDAY.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND
IN WAKE OF AN EARLIER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MONTEREY BAY SOUTH TO BIG SUR THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY PRODUCING LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL BEGINS TO INCREASE FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 430 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
TRANSITION DAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT AS A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. AS OF THIS WRITING THE FRONT IS JUST PUSHING THROUGH THE
N BAY AND WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PASSING FRONT WILL KICK OFF A COOLING AND
MOISTENING TREND, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE
IMPORTANTLY FOR A FIRE WEATHER STANDPOINT THE PASSING FRONT WILL
CAUSE AN UPTICK IN WINDS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT, BUT A WEAK
OFFSHORE PUSH DEVELOPS FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NOTHING TO BE
ALARMED OVER AS IT WILL BE WEAK AND MAINLY N AND E BAY HIGHER
TERRAIN.
MM
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...RGASS
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