391
FXUS66 KMTR 260654
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1154 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1154 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS; THE ACV-SFO
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 3.4 MB AND SFO-SAC IS 1.9 MB. COOLER AIR IS
COMBINING WITH NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE COOLING AND UPSLOPING WINDS
FORMING PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND MIST. RADIATIVE COOLING WILL ALSO
HELP RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.
ON AVERAGE OUR SEP WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN INFLUENCED BY LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING, WITH MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE BENEFITING
FROM BELOW SEP NORMALS FOR THE MONTH TO DATE. IF YOU'RE ENJOYING
THE WEATHER, IT'S A NICE WEEKEND SHAPING UP WITH SATURDAY DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 60S/70 AT THE COAST, MOSTLY 70S INLAND EXCEPT IN THE
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES. ALSO FOR SUNDAY DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW LATE SEP
NORMALS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S, QUITE NICE, IT COULD
BE WARMER/HOTTER THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1154 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
COOL TEMPERATURES CARRYOVER INTO MONDAY, THEN WARMING RETURNS
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING 500 MB RIDGING. DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL WARM BACK TO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND
WHILE IT'LL BE COOLER NEARER THE COAST WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 840 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
ALL TERMINALS. MONTEREY BAY HAS A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND EXTENT.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS EASING BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE'S A CHANCE FOR
MORE IMPACTFUL IFR/LIFR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, LIFTING BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXACT TIMING AND EXTENT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 840 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MONTEREY
BAY SOUTH TO BIG SURE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM
ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT BEGINS TO
INCREASE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 430 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
TRANSITION DAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT AS A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. AS OF THIS WRITING THE FRONT IS JUST PUSHING THROUGH THE
N BAY AND WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PASSING FRONT WILL KICK OFF A COOLING AND
MOISTENING TREND, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE
IMPORTANTLY FOR A FIRE WEATHER STANDPOINT THE PASSING FRONT WILL
CAUSE AN UPTICK IN WINDS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT, BUT A WEAK
OFFSHORE PUSH DEVELOPS FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NOTHING TO BE
ALARMED OVER AS IT WILL BE WEAK AND MAINLY N AND E BAY HIGHER
TERRAIN.
MM
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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