237
FXUS66 KMTR 282143 CCA
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
243 PM PDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1205 PM PDT MON SEP 28 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BAYSHORE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SAN
FRANCISCO, SAN PABLO, AND MONTEREY BAYS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1205 PM PDT MON SEP 28 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
THE STRATUS HAS LARGELY CLEARED OUT WITH SOME ISOLATED PATCHES
CONTINUING AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PROBABILITY OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS LOW TO VERY LOW, AS INCOMING RIDGING AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS
FORMATION PROCESSES.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL VALLEY INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT, EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TREKKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND ENTERING
ARIZONA BY TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE LOW, AN INCOMING RIDGE
KICKSTARTS A WARMING TREND THAT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE BAYS AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT THE PACIFIC COAST. ON TUESDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S TO MIDDLE 90S INLAND, THE
MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE BAYS, AND THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER
70S AT THE PACIFIC COAST.
WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST, A PUSH OF OFFSHORE WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE EXPOSED RIDGELINES, AND STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
RIDGE OF THE VACA MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NAPA-YOLO AND NAPA-SOLANO
COUNTY LINES. ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH ALONG THE COAST, THROUGH FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES, AND WITHIN
THE SALINAS VALLEY.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAYSHORE LOCATIONS OF
SAN FRANCISCO BAY, SAN PABLO BAY, AND MONTEREY BAY AROUND HIGH TIDE
STARTING TODAY. UP TO 1.2 FEET OF INUNDATION ABOVE NORMALLY DRY LAND
IS EXPECTED, INCLUDING UP TO 0.6 FT OF SURGE CAUSED BY THERMAL
EXPANSION AND SEA LEVEL RISE SINCE THE SEA LEVEL DATUM (BASICALLY
THE POINT WHERE WE DEFINE AS "SEA LEVEL") WAS SET IN THE 1983-2001
PERIOD. AT THE SAN FRANCISCO TIDAL GAUGE, HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED
TO BE 1.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL (6.87 FT MLLW) AT 12:57 PM MONDAY 9/28
AND 1.2 FT ABOVE NORMAL (7.01 FT MHHW) AT 1:30 PM TUESDAY 9/29.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1205 PM PDT MON SEP 28 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF HIGHER ELEVATION OFFSHORE FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PUSH WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH AND EAST BAY WITH GUSTS A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
THOSE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES MAY
FLUCTUATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY, MOST NOTABLY ON THURSDAY WHEN
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SOME OF THE COASTAL REGIONS TO DIP
BY A FEW DEGREES, BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY'S HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY OUTLOOK. AREAS OF
MODERATE HEATRISK, A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT BRINGS A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES TO SENSITIVE POPULATIONS, DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR REGIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. LONGER-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND HIGH TIDE CONTINUES IN LOW-LYING AREAS
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO, SAN PABLO, AND MONTEREY BAY SHORELINES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SAN FRANCISCO
TIDAL GAUGE, HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE 1.2 FT ABOVE NORMAL (7.03
FT MHHW) AT 2:10 PM WEDNESDAY 9/30, AND 1.1 FT ABOVE NORMAL (6.92 FT
MHHW) AT 2:58 PM ON THURSDAY 10/1.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM PDT MON SEP 28 2026
MARINE LAYER IMPACTS BEGIN TO FADE 17-18Z AS CIGS/FOG ARE
THINNING. EXPECT VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST OF TONIGHT. SOME CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AROUND MONTEREY BAY. LESS THAN 25%
CHC FOR FG AT KSTS, BUT CONF WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN
THE TAF.
VICINITY OF SFO...MORNING STRATUS HAS QUICKLY FADED AND YIELDED
VFR CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PD. NE
FLOW WILL LINGER THIS MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN AT MRY
OVERNIGHT, BUT CONF IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE CIGS AT SNS. WILL CARRY
A SCT GROUP FOR CLOUDS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM PDT MON SEP 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OUTER WATER NORTH OF POINT REYES AND THE BIG SUR
COAST. ROUGH SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THESE WINDS AND WILL
SUBSIDE TO MODERATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE. TROPICAL ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE LONG
PERIOD SWELL UP TO 16 SECONDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 515 AM PDT MON SEP 28 2026
THE MARINE LAYER PERSISTS THIS MORNING, AROUND 1500-2000FT, BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY COMPRESS TO AROUND 500FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TODAY WILL BE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK, THOUGH IT IS ALSO THE START
OF A WARMING TREND. OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION TODAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY WINDS EACH MORNING FROM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY MORNING IN
THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH AND EAST BAYS, WHERE WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES, WITH OVERNIGHT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 20-40% ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ006-506-
508-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO
PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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