113
FXUS66 KMTR 290836
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
136 AM PDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 AM PDT TUE SEP 29 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH MONDAY
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BAYSHORE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO,
SAN PABLO, AND MONTEREY BAYS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 135 AM PDT TUE SEP 29 2026
(TODAY AND WEDNESDAY)
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND KICKS OFF TODAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
NOSES IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER-
LEVEL LOW. THIS PATTERN WILL TIGHTEN AND SUPPORT A
NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK. IF THE MARINE LAYER IS ABLE
TO SURVIVE, EXPECT IT TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDE THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BAYSHORE LOCATIONS
ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY, SAN PABLO BAY, AND MONTEREY BAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 135 AM PDT TUE SEP 29 2026
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. THE HEAT PEAKS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STILL, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MODERATE HEATRISK AWAY FROM THE COMPRESSED
MARINE LAYER AT THE COAST. NO RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM PDT MON SEP 28 2026
CURRENTLY IFR-VFR. THE LITTLE STRATUS THAT IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IS ERODING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO AS
NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, TAFS MAY BE
TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH HAF AND MRY HANGING ONTO IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MID-TO-LATE MORNING. DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BECOME LIGHT
AND POTENTIALLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, THE DIRECTION WILL
LIKELY FAVOR EITHER WESTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY IFR WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
MRY AND VFR WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT SNS. STRATUS IS ACTUALLY ON AN
ERODING TREND WITH TONIGHT LIKELY DEPENDENT ON AN OTTER EDDY IN
MONTEREY BAY. REASONABLE BEST CASE SCENARIO IS VFR, REASONABLE WORST
CASE SCENARIO IS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COMPRESSES THE MARINE LAYER AND
BRINGS LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM PDT MON SEP 28 2026
STRONG TO VERY STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. FREQUENT
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS NORTHERLY BREEZES DIMINISH TO BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE,
WITH LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 515 AM PDT MON SEP 28 2026
THE MARINE LAYER PERSISTS THIS MORNING, AROUND 1500-2000FT, BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY COMPRESS TO AROUND 500FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TODAY WILL BE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK, THOUGH IT IS ALSO THE START
OF A WARMING TREND. OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION TODAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY WINDS EACH MORNING FROM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY MORNING IN
THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH AND EAST BAYS, WHERE WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES, WITH OVERNIGHT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 20-40% ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ006-506-
508-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES
10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO
PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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