490
FXUS66 KMTR 022104
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
204 PM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 201 PM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH NEXT WEEK
THURSDAY
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK THURSDAY
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BAYSHORE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY, SAN PABLO BAY, AND MONTEREY BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 201 PM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER
HEAD AND BELOW THAT MOST OF THE STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING SEEMS TO
HAVE ERODED. WEBCAMS AROUND HALF MOON AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHOW A
FEW LINGERING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER THIS
MORNING WAS AROUND 500-800FT PER THE OAK SOUNDING, WHICH WAS ON
TRACK WITH SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
CONTINUE TO COMPRESS LEAVING US AT 500FT FOR TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD
LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. IF IT RE-DEVELOPS, IT'D START AROUND SAN
FRANCISCO'S AND EXPAND SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRATUS RE-
DEVELOPMENT IS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AND THE ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. ANY FOG OR
STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED, LEADING TO A WARM AND
SUNNY SATURDAY.
SATURDAY KICKS OFF THE WARMING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH A
HEAT ADVISORY GOING INTO EFFECT AT 11AM SATURDAY AND RUNNING THROUGH
10PM MONDAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE INLAND AREAS. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK FORECAST ARE DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE AT RISK ON SATURDAY IF STRATUS
DOESN'T DEVELOP, LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 201 PM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
AS NOTED ABOVE, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 11AM SATURDAY
AND RUNNING THROUGH 10PM MONDAY. MODELS, INCLUDING THE NBM, HAVE
TRENDED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK EVEN
THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.
GIVEN THE TRENDS, OPTED TO EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO MONDAY, BUT
HELD OFF ON ANY DECISIONS FOR TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A POTENTIAL
PATTERN CHANGE OCCURING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
START EASE THURSDAY AND WITH THE TREND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, NO RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY AS OCTOBER IS
ONE OF THE HOTTEST MONTHS FOR THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAF
WHERE LIFR PERSISTS. ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, YET WILL BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY WITH THEM MOVING EAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW.
WINDS EASE LATE THIS EVENING WITH SUB-IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. WINDS EASE LATE IN THE EVENING WITH A 10-20%
PROBABILITY OF SUB-MVFR (AS LOW AS LIFR) BETWEEN 10Z-16Z SATURDAY
BASED OFF OF THE NBM. THUS, HAVE LEFT CEILINGS/FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR BOTH SFO AND OAK.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING AFTER SUNSET. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR SUB-MVFR AND AS LOW AS LIFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY A 40-55% PROBABILITY FROM 02Z-15Z SATURDAY.
ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN
15Z-18Z.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 353 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
RIDGING WILL LEAD TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY OUTLOOK. DAYTIME HUMIDITY RETENTION WILL
REMAIN POOR TO VERY POOR AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WHILE
OVERNIGHT, THE THERMAL BELTS REMAIN ACTIVE AND HUMIDITY RETENTION
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS POOR. PUSHES OF OFFSHORE FLOW ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EACH MORNING. HAZARDOUS HEAT
BUILDS THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY IMPACTING FIRE CREWS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ006-
506-508-529-530.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ503-
504-506-508-510-512>518.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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